Libmonster ID: UZ-1371

Edited by V. A. Rodionov. Ulan-Ude: BSU Publishing House, 2013, 248 p.

In recent years, the interest of politicians, political scientists, historians, economists, businessmen, tourists and the public in events taking place in East Asia, including bilateral and trilateral relations in the Russia-Mongolia-China triangle, has been noticeably growing. In this complex of issues, a special place is occupied by Russian-Mongolian relations, which have centuries-old traditions, including a rich, ambiguous experience of "special" Soviet-Mongolian relations in the XX century.

A new stage of bilateral relations began in the early 1990s, when the socialist system collapsed, the USSR collapsed, and a peaceful democratic revolution took place in Mongolia. The complex, multi-level system of comprehensive, deep political, trade, economic, industrial, cultural, scientific and humanitarian ties and cooperation that had been developing for almost 70 years (1921-1990) was disrupted. This system was built on the basis of a common ideology, close coordination of the foreign and domestic policies of large and small countries that were part of the socialist bloc headed by the USSR, and subordination of the national interests of these countries to the general principles of socialist internationalism, which in practice meant subordination to the national and state interests of the USSR in the In relation to Mongolia, in particular, this was expressed in "special" relations of the "big brother-younger brother" type, in which the USSR was Mongolia's patron, ally, protector, reliable support, model of social structure, and main donor. As a result, by the end of the 1980s. Underdeveloped Mongolia found itself in a strong political and economic dependence on the USSR.

At the new stage, relations between the Russian Federation and Mongolia began to be built on the basis of abandoning the previous ideology, the "big brother-younger brother" model of relations, the military-political alliance, the principles of priority of national interests, mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality, mutual benefit and generally recognized norms of international law.

Over the past years, a considerable amount of experience in bilateral relations has been accumulated, which requires a deep scientific understanding, analysis, drawing lessons from past achievements and mistakes, and developing an optimal model of Russian-Mongolian relations in the first quarter of the XXI century. It is no accident that this experience attracts the attention of many Russian, Mongolian and other foreign researchers, which is reflected in the emergence of a number of individual research projects. -

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scientific and collective monographs, including joint works of Russian and Mongolian scientists 1.

At the end of 2013, a new joint work of Russian and Mongolian scientists was published in Ulan-Ude, prepared by an international team of scientists from Buryat State University (BSU) and the Institute of International Relations of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (IMI ASM, Director of the Institute, head of the Mongolian side and author D. Shurkhuu)2.

The relevance, scientific and practical significance of this topic is beyond doubt. In particular, one of the most important arguments in favor of this is the current state of bilateral relations, which since the early 1990s have been developing unevenly, undulatively according to the "downturn-up" scheme and are currently experiencing another period of decline and stagnation.

The authors of the monograph set themselves the task of analyzing the current state of bilateral relations to try to answer such difficult questions: what will be the relations between Russia and Mongolia not only in the near future, but also in the more distant future? What unexpected twists are possible in this relationship? What are the possible models and scenarios for their development? In other words, "to look beyond the veil of the future and make it more understandable and predictable" (p. 5). In my opinion, the authors generally coped with this task successfully.

The main feature, scientific and practical value of this work is primarily that the complex of modern Russian-Mongolian relations is analyzed not in the traditional mixed, combined historical, political, economic and cultural discourse, but from the standpoint of modern political science using well-known Western theories of international relations, new approaches and research methods, in particular: methods of modeling international relations, developing several scenarios for future development, direct and remote survey of experts, etc.

The novelty of the paper lies in the fact that its authors " made one of the first attempts to predict the development of Russian-Mongolian relations taking into account the long-term perspective and using analytical schemes presented in the concepts of "models" and "scenarios "" (p.6).

It should be noted that there is a good source base and a thorough historiographical review of literature in Russian, Mongolian and English. One of the most important new sources for writing the book is the database obtained from a remote survey-interviews with 60 Russian and Mongolian experts, civil servants, scientists and entrepreneurs in Ulaanbaatar, Moscow, Ulan-Ude and Irkutsk. As far as I know, this method of interviewing experts in Russian Mongolian studies was used for the first time.

The structure of the monograph is strictly thought out, built according to the problem-chronological principle, consists of 3 chapters, 7 paragraphs, 10 sub-paragraphs, conclusions, references and appendices in the form of 42 tables based on the results of a survey of 60 Russian and Mongolian experts.


1 See, for example: Russia and Mongolia: a New Look at the history of Mutual relations in the XX century, Moscow: IV RAS, 2001; Yaskina G. S. Mongolia and the External World. Moscow: IV RAS, 2002; Yaskina G. S. Russia, Mongolia and China: the problem of cooperation and overcoming contradictions. Moscow: IE, 2009; Luzyanin S. G. Russia's Return to the " Big East "(2004-2008). Moscow: Vostok Zapad; ACT, 2007; Russia and Mongolia on the path of strategic Partnership.: IB RAS, 2011; The place of Russia and Mongolia in the modern regional configuration. Collection of articles, Moscow: RISI, 2012; Rodionov V. A. Russia and Mongolia: a new model of relations at the beginning of the XXI century. Ulan-Ude: BSC SB RAS, 2009; Meshchaninov M. B. Regions of Russia in trade and economic cooperation with Mongolia. Moscow: IE RAS, 2009. Mikhalev A.V. Mongolia in the Big Game of the XXI Century: the struggle for influence and informal institutions of "soft power". Ulan-Ude: BSU, 2013; Baldoo B., Damdinsuren S, Haisandai L. Mongolia tusgaar togtnol ba Oros, Hyatadyn huchin chuyl (Independence of Mongolia and Russian and Chinese factors). Улаанбаатар. 1999; Монгол-Оросынхарилцаа. Barimt bichguud. 1991-2004 (Mongolian-Russian relations. Documents. 1991-2004) / Ed. S. Damdinsuren, K. Dembaral). Улаанбаатар: ОУСХ МШУА, 2008. Монгол-Оросын харилцаа: бусчилеэн хогжлийн бодлого, хамтын ажиллагаа (Монголо-российские отношения: региональная политика и сотрудничество) / Ред. С. Дамдинсурэн, К. Дэмбэрэл. Улаанбаатар, 2005; Rossabi М. Modern Mongolia: From Khans to Commissars to Capitalists. Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2005; Campi A., Baasan R. The Impact of China and Russia on the United Stales Mongolian Political Relations in the Twentieth Century. N.Y.: Edwin Mcllcn Press, 2009; и др.

Modern Russian-Mongolian relations: models and scenarios 2 / Ed. by V. A. Rodionov. Ulan-Ude Publ., 2013.

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This review does not claim to be a comprehensive and complete analysis of all the advantages and disadvantages of the monograph.

Chapter 1, "Russian-Mongolian Relations: in search of Methodology", is devoted to the presentation of modern Western theories, models and scenarios of international relations in relation to the relations between Russia and Mongolia in the past and present.

Chapter 2, "Russia and Mongolia: Transformation of Relations in the 20th Century," examines the history of relations in the pre - socialist (1900-1921), socialist (1921-1990), and post-socialist (1990-present) periods. At the same time, it is noteworthy that the authors propose to conceptually describe the type of Russian-Mongolian relations that developed and existed during the socialist period for almost 70 years within the framework of a "hard" leadership model rather than a hegemonic one (pp. 51-52). This approach seems to be more accurate, adequate and constructive in comparison with the concept of satellites ("MNR-satellite of the USSR", etc.), which prevails in Mongolian studies in the West, as well as in the works of some modern Mongolian authors, for example, Baabar (B. Batbayar)3 and others.

At the same time, the formula of "hard" leadership, in my opinion, does not fully reflect the special nature of Soviet-Mongolian relations, in which elements of ordinary international relations are closely intertwined with trusting relations between leaders and citizens of the two countries and methods of "hard" leadership. These relations did not exclude cases of disagreement, disagreements, disputes and contradictions. Therefore, the history of Soviet-Mongolian relations is a special subject for research.

The second chapter summarizes the main changes that have taken place in bilateral political, trade, economic, cultural, scientific, cross-border and regional relations in the post-socialist period.

Chapter 3 "Models of Russian-Mongolian relations: Scenarios for the Future" is of the greatest interest for its novelty and unconventional approach, which examines various scenarios for the development of bilateral relations within the framework of three models: "confrontational", "allied" and "cooperative" (p. 22, etc.). and the innovation of the authors, who, based on a political analysis of the history and current state of Russian-Mongolian relations, made one of the first attempts to develop three models and six scenarios for the development of bilateral relations in the future.

This raises several important questions. In particular, why did the authors limit themselves to the above-mentioned three models and not include the "strategic partnership" model among them? As is well known, at present this model not only exists in the minds of individual politicians, political scientists and scientists, but is also widely used in the practice of international relations and interstate documents, in particular in the Declaration on the Development of Strategic Partnership between Russia and Mongolia (2009)4. The text of the monograph repeatedly refers to this Declaration, moreover, there is a separate sub-paragraph "Steps to strengthen the Mongolian-Russian strategic partnership", but for some reason this model was not included in the list of those considered. One cannot but agree with the authors ' statements that at present the concept of "strategic partnership" is still too vague, uncertain, there is no generally accepted definition of it, and the rights and obligations of participants in strategic partnership are not clearly formulated (pp. 183-184). Despite this, it seems that the level of competence of most authors, who are well aware of the history and current state of bilateral Russian-Mongolian relations, allowed them to freely reflect in this discourse and express their thoughts and suggestions.

It is worth mentioning that in 2011 a joint collective monograph "Russia and Mongolia on the Path of Strategic Partnership" was published in Moscow (unfortunately, in a very limited edition), prepared by a team of Russian Mongolian scholars from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Mongolian scientists from the Institute of International Studies of the Academy of Sciences of the Ministry of Education and Science-


3 Baabar. From World Power to Soviet Satellite: History of Mongolia / Ed. by С. Kaplonski. Cambridge: The White Horse Press, 1999; Баабар. The History of Mongolia: from World Domination to the Soviet satellite. Kazan: Tatar Publ., 2010.

4 Declaration on the Development of Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and Mongolia. http://www.mid.ru.

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goliath 5. In this paper, an attempt was made to identify the main features of the strategic partnership between Russia and Mongolia.

It is noteworthy that some Mongolian authors of the peer-reviewed monograph, in particular D. Shurkhuu, L. Nyamdolzhin and Zh. Orkhon, participated in the preparation of a monograph published in Moscow. Taking this opportunity, it should be noted with satisfaction that the main content of both monographs does not contradict each other, but, on the contrary, complements each other.

Each of the three proposed models considers two hypothetical scenarios for the development of bilateral relations in the future. Thus, within the framework of the" confrontational " model, two scenarios are considered: 1) "Great Mongolia of the XX century, or the new pan-Mongolism" and 2)" Lntirussian bloc, or the union of Mongolia with third countries " (pp. 121-152).

Why did the authors start their analysis of possible models for the development of Russian-Mongolian relations with the "confrontational" model? Has such a model been most characteristic of Russian-Mongolian relations in the past and present? As you know, the entire history of Russian-Mongolian relations in the XX-early XXI centuries did not know any precedents of direct, open confrontation between Russia and Mongolia. On the contrary, many Mongolian leaders in different periods of history before and after the October Revolution in Russia repeatedly turned to Russia for help (in 1911, 1921, 1939, 1945, 1966). I personally do not know the works of Mongolian politicians, political scientists and experts that would consider options for a "confrontational model" between Mongolia and Russia in the future.

According to the first scenario, as one of the main factors that hypothetically may lead to a confrontation between Russia and Mongolia in the future, the authors consider the possibility of another revival of the ideas of pan-Mongolism, the creation of Great Mongolia and attempts to implement them in practice (pp. 121-136). The book provides a brief overview of the history of the emergence and development of pan-Mongolism and attempts to implement it in the XX century, including during the next surge of pan-Mongolian ideas and sentiments in Buryatia and Mongolia in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In my opinion, the authors of the monograph quite reasonably came to the conclusion that "the probability of implementing this scenario of Russian-Mongolian relations is extremely low. Given the current international political balance of power in the region, as well as the domestic political contexts in Russia, Mongolia, and China, supporters of the creation of a Greater Mongolia have little chance of success, and the idea of a Greater Mongolia itself can be assessed as marginal" (pp. 136-137).

According to the authors of the monograph, the second scenario within the framework of the "confrontational model" is unlikely in the case of Mongolia's entry into an anti-Russian alliance, for example, with the PRC, the United States and other countries (pp. 136-150).

Thus, based on the analysis of groups of internal political, economic, and external factors that both contribute to and deter the hypothetical possibility of confrontational relations between Russia and Mongolia, the authors concluded that the probability of both scenarios is extremely low (pp. 135-136, 153).

Within the framework of the "allied relations" model, the authors also considered two scenarios:: 1) "And again " big brother", or the new Russian-Mongolian union"; 2)"Regional triangle: from partnership to union". The second case refers to relations in the Russia-Mongolia-China triangle.

In the first scenario, the authors of the monograph analyzed the totality of foreign policy, economic, military-political and other factors in the development of Russia and Mongolia and came to a reasonable conclusion, in my opinion, that in the current conditions a new military-political alliance between Russia and Mongolia is unlikely, moreover, " the development of events within the framework of the allied scenario is highly likely to This can lead to the emergence of a new hotbed of confrontation in East Asia, which will entail a number of serious, mostly negative political and socio-economic consequences, both for Russia and Mongolia" (p.162 et al.).

In accordance with the second scenario "Regional Triangle: from partnership to alliance", according to the authors, favorable prerequisites for a possible rapprochement between Russia, Mongolia and China up to the formation of a military-political alliance are such factors as the already existing historical experience of Soviet-Mongolian-Chinese allied relations


Russia and Mongolia on the Path of Strategic Partnership, 5 Moscow: IV RAS, IMI ASM. 2011.

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in the 1950s, after the victory of the Chinese Revolution in 1949, the normalization of interstate relations between all participants of the triangle in the early 1990s, mutual declarations on raising bilateral Russian-Chinese, Russian-Mongolian and Mongolian-Chinese relations to the level of strategic partnership, the participation of the three countries in the SCO, common challenges and threats - security problems in the region, the fight against terrorism, separatism, illegal drug trafficking, illegal migration, etc. At the same time, other factors should be taken into account: the widespread perception of the "Chinese threat" in Russia and Mongolia, the absence of major trilateral economic projects, imbalances in trade and economic relations and investment between Russia and China, between Russia and Mongolia, between China and Mongolia, and the danger of turning Russia and Mongolia into a raw material appendage of China competition between Russian and Chinese companies for access to the development of large mineral deposits in Mongolia, Mongolia's policy of equidistance in relation to Russia and China and the policy of Mongolia's "third neighbor", etc. After analyzing the totality of all factors, the authors naturally concluded that "it is not necessary to talk about the transformation of the geopolitical triangle of Russia and China into a strategic triangle or even into a union of three states" (p.184).

In chapter 3, "Models of Russian-Mongolian relations: Scenarios for the future", two scenarios are considered: 1) "Status quo, or equidistance as a guarantee of security" and 2)" Russia's"Return" to Mongolia: the problem of choosing a strategy". The authors rightly note that this model of cooperation best reflects the current state of Russian-Mongolian relations (p. 185). Of course, this is correct from the point of view of the three proposed models. However, it should be borne in mind that the stage of normal, traditional, good-neighborly and friendly relations between Russia and Mongolia has largely passed, and in the mid - 2000s, both sides agreed in principle to raise bilateral relations to a new, higher level-strategic partnership. Another thing is that earlier agreements reached were not fulfilled for a number of reasons, including the fault of the Mongolian side. This is due to the change in the country's political leadership as a result of the presidential (2009) and parliamentary (2012) elections.

Analyzing the current state of ensuring Mongolia's national security, the authors, in my opinion, reasonably write that the updated version of the Concept of Foreign Policy of Mongolia-2011 does not fully take into account the major changes that have taken place in trade and economic relations within the triangle, in particular, the significant weakening of Russia's trade and economic positions in Mongolia, the growth of China's dominant influence in trade, economic and investment cooperation with Mongolia. Under these conditions, the principle of equal distance of Mongolia from Russia and China, or the status quo, ceases to work and actually becomes a cover for China's economic dominance in Mongolia (p. 196).

Within the framework of the" collaborative "model, the authors proposed the second scenario - "Russia's "return" to Mongolia: problems of strategy selection " (pp. 198-211).

In general, the authors adequately described the process of Russia's "return" to Mongolia in the 2000s, noting its positive and negative aspects.

At present, in the publications of Russian and foreign international experts, political scientists, Mongolian scholars, and orientalists writing about Mongolia and Russian-Mongolian relations, one can often find the stereotypical expression "Russia's return to Mongolia" after 2000. However, in my opinion, in this case it should be borne in mind that the very concept of "return" is very conditional, since even in the most difficult years of the early 1990s, Russia never completely left Mongolia. Yes, of course, in the early 1990s, the previous long-term, close, comprehensive ties and cooperation were disrupted during the "shock", unprepared transition of both countries to new models of their own development and interaction between them. The volume of economic assistance and trade, economic, cultural, scientific, military and other cooperation has sharply decreased. But it did not stop completely either at the federal or regional level. In the difficult conditions of the transformation downturn, large joint ventures continued to operate in Mongolia-GOK "Erdenet", HO "Mongolrostsvetmet" and JSC UBZhD, which formed the backbone of the Mongolian economy and a solid foundation for bilateral strategic trade and economic cooperation. In my opinion, the concept of "returning" Russia to Mongolia essentially means, first, reorganizing the entire bilateral cooperation on new principles,

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Secondly, it is necessary to preserve, restore and activate those areas and forms of cooperation that have proved viable in the new historical conditions, and thirdly, to jointly search for ways to bring cooperation to a new level of strategic partnership. Russia's choice regarding the strategy for the development of Russian-Mongolian relations in the XXI century A strategic partnership has already been established. This policy should be given concrete content and implemented in practice.

It is interesting and instructive to analyze the reasons why modern Russian-Mongolian relations have become stagnant (pp. 201-204). According to the authors, the main reason is "the erroneous strategy chosen by Moscow in relations with Ulaanbaatar" (p. 201). First, "the conviction that "pro-Russian" and "pro-Western" (and therefore "anti-Russian") forces predominate in the Mongolian political space." The" pro-Russian " party was usually considered the MPRP, which in the socialist period had close ties with the USSR and the CPSU, and in the post-Socialist period for a number of years was the ruling party. Therefore, the Russian leadership made the main bet on the ruling MPRP and its leaders. The" pro-Western " parties usually included the majority of opposition parties led by the Democratic Party. It's hard to disagree with this argument. Here, apparently, a significant miscalculation was made in assessing the alignment of political forces in Mongolia on the eve of the presidential elections in 2009, at which the former president of the country, chairman of the MPRP N. V. Abramovich, was elected as the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Mongolia. Enkhbayar, lost, and the victory was won by the chairman of the Democratic Party, the current President of Mongolia Ts. Элбэгдорж. Secondly, "it is a calculation that the high level of political interaction between Moscow and Ulaanbaatar is a guarantee of promoting Russian economic interests in Mongolia, primarily in the country's most promising mining industry" (pp. 201-202). Practice has shown that this is not the case. This argument also seems reasonable.

The authors rightly point out that one of the important factors hindering the development of Russian-Mongolian relations is the erroneous perception among modern Mongolian politicians and experts that any rapprochement with Russia means "an attempt to restore the socialist past" (p.196).

There is no doubt that the authors ' recommendations to modern leaders of Russia and Mongolia on how they should act in the framework of the hypothetical scenarios for the development of bilateral relations, including the recommendation to follow the principle of "soft power", are of some practical interest (pp. 215-216, etc.).

There are some inaccuracies in the fairly complete historiographic review and the list of references. I would like to take this opportunity to inform you that I am not the author of the monograph "Trade and Economic relations between the USSR and the MNR. 1962-1987" (p.35, 221). Apparently, this inaccuracy was borrowed from some other work, unknown to me. Surname of the author of the well-known monograph " External Relations of Mongolia. The beginning and end of the XX century", Academician of the Academy of Sciences of Mongolia, correctly spelled B. Baldoo, and not B. Boldoo (p. 33 and others).

Despite the noted shortcomings and controversial issues, the monograph "Modern Russian-Mongolian relations: models and scenarios" as a whole is an innovative, independent, complete study of possible models and scenarios for the development of Russian-Mongolian relations in the short and long term, performed by a team of Russian (BSU) and Mongolian (IMI ASM) scientists at a high level scientific and theoretical level of modern political science and has an important scientific and practical significance.

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