Libmonster ID: UZ-1282

The transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of the population occurs under the influence of three factors: natural growth, determined by the ratio of birth rate and mortality, migration flows, and assimilation processes. Since assimilation usually takes place over a long historical period, and its quantitative measurement is difficult to determine, the main factors of transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of the independent states of Central Asia (CA)are:1 During the 1990s and the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, natural and migration movements of the population can be considered.

Key words: Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyzstan), Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, migration, demography.

NATURAL POPULATION MOVEMENT: NEW TRENDS

In the conditions of a deep economic crisis and unstable socio-political situation that accompanied the collapse of the USSR, the rate of natural population growth in the former Soviet republics noticeably decreased. In Central Asia and Kazakhstan, demographic growth slowed down as early as the 1970s. If during the period of the demographic "explosion", which peaked in 1959-1970, the population growth reached 42.6%, in 1970-1979 - 22.6, in 1979-1989 - 22.9, then in 1991-2000. - only 9.3%, having more than doubled in comparison with the previous decade [Population of the USSR, 1989, p. 8-9; On the demographic situation in the Commonwealth countries, 2001, p.13]. By 2000, the population of the region reached 55.2 million, by 2008-60.6 million people, and its share among the population of the CIS in 1991-2005 increased from 18 to 21.6% [World Population..., 2008, p. 9; Permanent population of the CIS countries... in 2008].

At the same time, the demographic development trends of the Central Asian states in the post-Soviet period were multidirectional.

During 1990-1999, the average annual population growth rate of Kyrgyzstan was 0.8%, Tajikistan-1.8%, and Uzbekistan - 2%. In Kazakhstan, on the contrary, the population decreased by 0.6% annually in the 1990s, which was a consequence of the mass emigration of non-indigenous ethnics2 and a sharp decline in natural growth rates (Table 1). As a result, the number of residents of Kazakhstan by 2000 was reduced by 10%.

1 Central Asia in this article includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, while Central Asia includes Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

2 Indigenous ethnic groups are defined in the article as peoples who lived on the territory of Central Asia at the time of its incorporation into the Russian Empire, while non-indigenous peoples are immigrants of the pre-revolutionary and Soviet periods from other, mainly European regions of the country. The definition of "European" is used as a synonym for the term "non-indigenous".

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Table 1

Population dynamics in Central Asian countries 1991-2008

A country

Number of employees, mln.

Growth / decline

1991

2000

2008

2000 to 1991

2008 to 1991

millions

%

millions

%

Kazakhstan

16.4

14.9

15.7

-1.5

90.9

-0.7

95.7

Kyrgyzstan

4.4

4.9

5.2

0.5

111.4

0.8

118.2

Tadjikistan

5.3

6.1

7.3

0.8

115.1

2

137.7

Turkmenistan

3.8

4.8

5.2

1.0

126.3

1.4

136.8

Uzbekistan

20.6

24.5

27.2

3.9

118.9

6.6

132.0

Total

50.5

55.2

60.6

4.7

109.3

10.1

120

Sources: [On the demographic situation in the CIS countries..., 2001, p. 13; World Population..., 2008, p. 9].

It decreased by 9.1% (1.5 million people), while Kyrgyzstan increased by 11.4% (0.5 million), Tajikistan - by 15.1 (0.8 million), and Uzbekistan-by 18.9% (3.9 million).

In 2000-2008, there was a small increase in the population in Kazakhstan (by 0.8 million), as a result of which its total decline by 2008 was reduced to 4.3%. In Central Asia, the population continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 18.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 32% in Uzbekistan, 36.8% in Turkmenistan, and 37.7% in Tajikistan. Differences in demographic growth rates led to the fact that the share of Kazakhstan in the population of Central Asia during 1991-2008 decreased from 32.5% to 25.9%, while that of Uzbekistan increased from 40.8% to 44.9%, which led to further population concentration in overpopulated Central Asia.

In general, the undisputed demographic leaders of Central Asia are Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, where more than 70% of the region's population lives. However, compared to the neighboring states of the Middle East3, these figures are not particularly impressive. Thus, the demographic potential of Uzbekistan as of 2005 is comparable to that of Iraq (28.8 million) and Saudi Arabia (24.6 million), while that of Kazakhstan is comparable to that of Syria (18.4 million). The leading states of the region-Turkey (72.9 million) and Iran (69.5 million)4-not only outnumber Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan by 2.5-5 times, but also the entire population of Central Asia taken together [World Population..., 2005, p. 9-10].

The decline in demographic growth in the sovereign states of Central Asia was caused by a reduction in natural population growth. In 1991-1999, the total birth rate in Kyrgyzstan decreased 1.3 times, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan-1.5 times, in Turkmenistan - 1.8 times, and in Tajikistan - 2.1 times. Despite the decrease in mortality in the republics of Central Asia due to the younger age structure and its small increase in Kazakhstan, the natural population growth of Kyrgyzstan decreased by 1.5 (from 21.6 to 14.6 per 1000 people), Uzbekistan - by 1.7 (from 28.3 to 17), Turkmenistan-by 1.9 (from 25.4 to 13.1Tajikistan-2.3 times (from 32.8 to 14.4), and Kazakhstan - 3 times (from 13.4 to 4.4) [On the demographic situation in the CIS countries..., 2001, pp. 20-22].

3 In recent years, the expression Greater Middle East, introduced by American experts during the reign of J. R. R. Tolkien, has become widely used in science through journalism. George W. Bush. In the Greater Middle East, they included Turkey, the states of Transcaucasia, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the countries of North Africa, where Islam prevails. After the unrest of 2010/2011 in the Arab world, the phrase New Middle East appeared in Washington's political rhetoric.

4 Some experts, such as A. N. Anisimov, consider these figures to be very low.

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Table 2

Dynamics of total fertility, mortality and natural population growth rates, 1991-2008 (per 1000 people)

Year

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2008

A country

Birth rate

Kazakhstan

21.6

19.3

17.5

15.2

14.2

14.9

16.6

17

21

Kyrgyzstan

28.5

25.7

25.6

21.6

21.4

19.8

20.9

21

24

Tadjikistan

38.9

33.1

28.6

25.0

18.6

27.2

27.1

31

27

Turkmenistan

32.4

31.1

28.3

21.6

18.5

-

-

24

24

Uzbekistan

34.5

31 5

29.8

25.5

22.3

20.4

-

23

24

Mortality rate

Kazakhstan

8.2

9.5

10.7

10.4

9.8

10

10.4

11

10

Kyrgyzstan

6.9

7.6

8.0

7.3

6.8

6.6

7.1

8

7

Tadjikistan

6.1

8.7

5.9

5.8

4.2

5.1

5.1

8

5

Turkmenistan

7

7.4

7.0

6.5

5.4

-

-

8

6

Uzbekistan

6.2

6.6

6.4

5.8

5.3

5.3

-

7

7

Natural growth rate

Kazakhstan

13.4

9.8

6.8

4.8

4.4

4.9

6.2

6

11

Kyrgyzstan

21.6

18.1

17.6

14.3

14.6

13.2

13.8

13

17

Tadjikistan

32.8

24.4

22.7

19.2

14.4

22.1

22.0

23

22

Turkmenistan

25.4

23.7

21.3

15.1

13.1

-

-

16

18

Uzbekistan

28.3

24.9

23.4

19.7

17.0

15.1

-

16

17

Sources: [Commonwealth of Independent States..., 2003, p. 106; On the demographic situation in the Commonwealth countries..., 2001, p. 20-22; World Population... 2008, p. 9].

The total natural population growth rate of Tajikistan in 1999-2008 increased from 14.4 to 22, Kazakhstan-from 4.4 to 11, Turkmenistan - from 13.1 to 18.0, Kyrgyzstan-from 14.6 to 17, and Uzbekistan remained at the same level (17 per 1000 people). By 2008, Kazakhstan's natural population growth was still the lowest, while Tajikistan's population growth was the highest, and the differences between the two countries noticeably decreased after the collapse of the USSR (Table 2).
The main reason for the long-term decline in the birth rate was a deep economic crisis and a drop in the standard of living of the population, which changed its reproductive behavior. During 1988-1998, the average number of children born to a woman during their lifetime decreased in Kazakhstan from 3.1 to 2, in Kyrgyzstan-from 4 to 2.8, in Uzbekistan - from 4.3 to 2.8, in Turkmenistan - from 4.6 to 2.9, and in Tajikistan - from 5.3 to 3.4 [World Development Report..., 2001, p. 286-287; Population of the USSR..., 1989, pp. 328-329, 331-332]. By the end of the 1990s, the birth rate in Kazakhstan provided only simple, and in the republics of Central Asia - expanded reproduction of the population.

Despite the reduction in the average size of families, most of them had many children. In 1993, 45% of all families in Kyrgyzstan and about 60% in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan consisted of five or more people [CIS and EU..., 1995, pp. 40-41]. In Tajikistan, according to the 2000 census, 10.8% of all households included ten or more people [Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Tajikistan..., 2001, p. 159]. The overall data reflecting the smaller size of families in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan was influenced by the high proportion of non-indigenous people, which is characterized by small families.

The preservation of the tradition of having many children among indigenous peoples and its absence among non-indigenous ethnic groups led to the multidirectional nature of demographic processes taking place in their environments. If the former were characterized by high rates of natural growth,

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Table 3

Dynamics of the age structure of the population, 1989-2003.*

A country

Specific weight of age groups, %

0-14 years old

15-64 years old

65 years and older

1989

2003

1989

2003

1989

2003

Kazakhstan

32

25

62

67

6

8

Kyrgyzstan

37

33

58

62

5

5

Tadjikistan

43

40

53

56

4

4

Turkmenistan

41

37

55

59

4

4

Uzbekistan

41

36

55

60

4

4

Russia

23

16

67

71

10

13

*Data on the age structure of the population of Kazakhstan are given for 2004, Turkmenistan-for 2001, Uzbekistan-for 2002.

Source: [Commonwealth of Independent States..., 2003, p. 102].

for the latter, it is depopulation caused by a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. As of 1995, the birth rate among Tajiks in Tajikistan was 29.8, Uzbeks-30.3, and Russians - 6.2, while the mortality rate was 5.3, 5.4, and 16 per 1000 people, respectively (Sokolova, 1998). That is, the birth rate of Russians was 4.8 times lower, and the death rate was 3 times higher than that of indigenous ethnic groups. In Kyrgyzstan, the total birth rate among Kyrgyz people in 1995 was 30.6, mortality - 6.4, and natural growth - 24.2, among Uzbeks - 32.1, 6, and 26.1, and among Russians - 9.2, 14.6, and 5.2 people [Birth rates..., 2006].

A decrease in natural growth led to the" growing up " of the population, which reduced the share of younger and increased the share of middle age groups. In 1991-2003, the share of children and adolescents under 15 years of age in Kazakhstan decreased from 32 to 25%, in Kyrgyzstan-from 37 to 33%, in Tajikistan-from 43 to 40%, in Turkmenistan - from 41 to 37%, in Uzbekistan - from 41 to 36%, and in the population aged from 15 to 64 years-increased respectively from 62 to 67, from 58 to 62, from 53 to 56, from 55 to 59 and from 55 to 60%. The share of the population aged 65 years and older increased only in Kazakhstan (from 6 to 8%), while in other Central Asian countries it remained at the level of 4-5% (Table 3).
The predominance of young age groups indicates a rapid change of generations, as a result of which the majority of the working-age population of Central Asia will change within two to three decades. In the medium term, the majority of its inhabitants will be those who were born after the collapse of the USSR, which will inevitably lead to a significant change in the socio-cultural appearance of the region.

MIGRATION OF THE "NON-INDIGENOUS" POPULATION

The emigration of non-indigenous people from the republics of Central Asia and Kazakhstan began long before the collapse of the USSR. In the Kazakh SSR, the outflow of the European population was first recorded in 1968, and in Central Asia it began in the 1970s. By this time, the consequences of the demographic "explosion" among the indigenous population, which caused an increase in tension in the labor markets, as well as the policy of "rootization", began to affect. The sphere of intersection of interests of indigenous and non-indigenous ethnic groups became the party and state apparatus, the education system, healthcare, culture and art, where prestigious positions were increasingly occupied by representatives of titular ethnic groups [Savoskul, 2001, p.354]. As a result, the migration influx of the European population has been replaced by an outflow.

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Table 4

Reasons for emigration in 1991 (in % of the total number of reasons mentioned)

Countries

Study

Change of place of work

Aggravation of interethnic relations

Aggravation of the criminal situation

Family circumstances

Unsettled living conditions

Other

Kazakhstan

11.1

14.1

10.9

1.3

33.6

8.5

20.5

Kyrgyzstan

8

12.8

32.7

3.8

22.5

6.5

13.7

Tadjikistan

5.5

9.1

40.6

5.7

22.9

4.4

11.8

Turkmenistan

13.1

13.9

15.4

1.3

30

5.7

20.6

Uzbekistan

8.3

10

27.3

2.5

25.6

6.2

20.1

Russia

5.5

16.6

3.2

0.6

40.2

13.9

20

Source: [Member countries of the Commonwealth..., 1992, p. 7].

Post-Soviet migrations were based on a whole set of factors that determined the nature and intensity of their course over different historical periods. Objective factors included political (the collapse of the USSR and the transformation of administrative borders between republics into state ones, which forced the non-indigenous population to decide on their citizenship and country of residence [Katagoshchina, 2001, p. 75-77; Molodikova, 2002, p. 134-136]), social (non-inclusion of non-indigenous ethnic groups in the system of informal social relations [Brusina, 1998]) and economic (a significant reduction in employment in industrial sectors), while subjective factors include ethnic (an increase in nationalist sentiments among the indigenous population of the region), confessional (an increase in the influence of Islam) and cultural (a narrowing of the Russian cultural, information and educational space).

In a specific historical situation, these factors were transformed into the reasons that determined the dynamics of migration in a particular country. According to the results of a sample survey in 1991, emigration from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was mainly caused by the aggravation of interethnic relations, which accounted for 40.6, 32.7 and 27.3% of the total number of reasons for departure, respectively. According to this indicator, Tajikistan was second only to Azerbaijan (47.9%) [CIS member States..., 1992, p.7], which by that time was involved in the armed conflict in Nagorno - Karabakh. At the same time, in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, interethnic relations ranked only second and third among the reasons for emigration after family circumstances and changing jobs. In Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, which experienced interethnic conflicts, an important reason for emigration was the criminogenic dynamics that usually accompany periods of internal political instability (Table 4).
By the mid-1990s, when the situation in Central Asia had somewhat stabilized, economic problems came out on top of the reasons for emigration. A survey of Russian citizens of Kazakhstan conducted in 1994 showed that the main reason for their departure was the unstable economic situation. Discrimination on ethnic grounds, which, according to a 1999 expert survey, was manifested in the advantages of the titular population in employment and promotion, ranked third among the reasons for leaving Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but still had a push-out effect [Savoskul, 2001, pp. 398-399].

In quantitative terms, population emigration from Central Asian countries continued to increase until the mid-1990s and began to decline in the second half of the decade. On the one hand, its decline was caused by a decrease in the number of non-indigenous ethnic groups and, as a result, the gradual exhaustion of the migration potential, and on the other hand, it was caused by a decrease in the number of non-indigenous ethnic groups.

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Table 5

Population migrations between Central Asia and Russia, 1991-2008 (thousands of people)

A country

1991-1999

2000-2008

1991-2008

Emigration*

Kazakhstan

1853.4

486.3

2339.7

Kyrgyzstan

341.7

135.9

477.6

Tadjikistan

342.6

81.7

424.3

Turkmenistan

142.3

42.7

185.0

Uzbekistan

704.7

290.9

995.7

Total

3384.8

1037.5

4422.3

Immigration**

Kazakhstan

463

115.6

578.7

Kyrgyzstan

82.5

8.3

90.8

Tadjikistan

37.9

6.4

44.3

Turkmenistan

32.3

2.2

34.4

Uzbekistan

137.5

11.2

148.7

Total

753.2

143.7

896.9

Net migration***

Kazakhstan

1390.4

370.7

1761.1

Kyrgyzstan

259.3

127.6

386.8

Tadjikistan

304.8

75.3

380.01

Turkmenistan

110.0

40.5

150.6

Uzbekistan

567.3

279.7

847.0

Total

2631.7

893.8

3525.5

* Departure from Central Asian countries to Russia.

** Arrived in Central Asian countries from Russia.

*** The difference between the number of emigrants and immigrants.

Sources: [Demographic Yearbook of Russia..., 2000, pp. 321, 323; Russian Statistical Yearbook, 2007, pp. 124-125; International Migration, 2009; Demography..., 2009].

the other is the relative stabilization of the political and economic situation. However, periodic bursts of migration outflow associated with the aggravation of the internal political situation were observed in the region throughout the second half of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s.

The vast majority of migrants from Central Asia moved to Russia. As the migration potential of Germans, Jews, Greeks, Poles and other peoples whose historical homeland was located outside the USSR was exhausted, the share of the Russian Federation among the countries of departure increased. If in 1991 Russia accounted for about 3/4 of all migrants from Kazakhstan and more than 1/2 from Central Asia, then by the end of the decade-93.2% of migrants from Kazakhstan, 84.2% - from Kyrgyzstan, 76.9% - from Uzbekistan, 71.7% - from Tajikistan and 67.5% - from Turkmenistan. CIS countries..., 2001, pp. 34-35].

In total, the net migration of the population from Central Asia to Russia during 1991-2008 amounted to 3535.5 thousand people, 50% of which accounted for Kazakhstan, 24% - Uzbekistan, 11% - Kyrgyzstan, 10.8% - Tajikistan and 4.3% - Turkmenistan. In comparison with 1991-1999, the share of migrants from Kazakhstan (from 52.8% to 41.5%) and Tajikistan (from 11.6%) significantly decreased in the first decade of the 2000s.

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to 8.4%), and increased - from Uzbekistan (from 21.6 to 31.3%) and Kyrgyzstan (from 9.9 to 14.3%) (tab. 5), which was caused by the deterioration of the economic and political situation in these republics.

In many respects, the level of migration losses was determined by the specific weight of the non-indigenous population. In 1989-1999, 3/4 of the net migration to Russia ("net" inflow) from Central Asian countries was provided by Slavs, including more than 2/3 by Russians. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the share of Slavs among immigrants increased consistently, reaching a maximum in 1994, and in the second half of the decade it gradually began to decline. However, in 1999 They still accounted for almost 2/3 of the region's residents resettled in Russia. Only in 1991-1999. The population of the Russian Federation increased by 3 million due to migration from Central Asian countries. Russians, 243 thousand Ukrainians and 30.4 thousand Belarusians [Demographic Yearbook of Russia..., 1994, p. 400-401; same, 2000, p. 354-357]. As a result, migration processes became the main factor that radically changed the ethno-confessional structure of the Central Asian states.

CHANGING THE ETHNO-CONFESSIONAL STRUCTURE

In each of the Central Asian states, the transformation of the ethno-confessional structure was determined by a specific combination of migration and demographic factors.

In Kazakhstan, such factors were the mass emigration of "non-indigenous" ethnic groups, which accounted for more than half of the population in the late 1980s, and the low natural growth of Kazakhs themselves. In 1989-1999, the population of Kazakhstan under the influence of emigration decreased by 7.7%, the number of Russians decreased by 26.1%, and the number of Kazakhs increased by 22.9%. If in 1989 there were 6,062 thousand Russians and 6,496.9 thousand Kazakhs living in Kazakhstan, in 1999 the number of the former decreased to 4,479. 6 thousand, and the latter grew to 7,985 thousand people. As a result, the share of Russians decreased from 37.4% to 30%, and Kazakhs increased from 40.1% to 53.4%, and therefore they became the ethnic majority in the republic for the first time since 1926 (Table 6).
The decline in the number of Russians and the increase in the titular population of Kazakhstan continued in the following years. By 2007, the number of Russians in the republic decreased to 3.9 million (by 34% compared to 1989), and Kazakhs increased to 9.3 million (by 16.8%), as a result of which the share of the former decreased to 25.5%, and the latter increased to 59.8% of the population [Demographic Yearbook of Kazakhstan..., 2008, p. 26].

In addition to the Russians, depopulation also affected other non-indigenous ethnic groups of Kazakhstan. By the end of the 1990s, the number of Ukrainians and Belarusians decreased by almost 2/3, and the total share of Eastern Slavs, which reached 43.9% of the population in 1989 and exceeded the share of the titular ethnic group, decreased to 34.4%, which led to the loss of their numerical superiority. The number of Germans decreased even more significantly, which decreased by 2.7 times. If in 1989 they numbered 946.9 thousand, then in 1999-only 353.4 thousand people. As a result, the share of Germans who actively resettled in Germany decreased from 5.8% to 2.4%, and among the most numerous ethnic groups, they moved from third to fifth place [Brief results of the 1999 population census in the Republic of Kazakhstan..., 1999, p.11].

Similar demographic processes were observed in other non-indigenous ethnic groups. In 1989-1999, the number of Greeks decreased by 3.6 times, Bashkirs and Mordvins-by 1.8 times, Moldovans-by 1.7 times, Bulgarians-by 1.5 times, Tatars, Poles and Armenians - by 1.3 times. The decline in their numbers was faster than that of the Russians, which was due to the assimilation of the latter part of the "Russian-speaking" population, as well as the high migration outflow of ethnic groups whose historical homeland was located outside the post-Soviet space. Indicators of natural growth of indigenous ethnic groups, on the contrary, remained high. By 1999, the number of Dungans increased by 23.3%, Uyghur-by 15.9,

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Table 6

Dynamics of the ethnic composition of the population of Kazakhstan, 1989-1999

Ethnic group

Number, thousand people

Increase / decrease

Specific gravity, %

1999 in % to 1989

1989

1999

1989

1999

The entire population

16 199.2

14 953.1

-1246.1

100

100

92.3

Indigenous

7082.1

8641.3

1559.2

43.7

57.8

122

Kazakhs

6496.9

7985.0

1488.1

40.1

53.4

122.9

Uzbeks

331

370.7

39.7

2

2.5

112

Uyghurs

181.5

210.4

28.9

1.1

1.4

115.9

Dungane

30

36.9

6.9

0.2

0.2

123.3

Tajiks

25.3

25.7

0.4

0.2

0.2

101.3

Kyrgyz people

13.7

10.9

-2.8

0.1

0.1

79.4

Turkmens

3.7

1.7

-2

0.1

0.0

46.5

Non-indigenous

8917.6

6145.6

-2772

55

41.1

68.9

Russians

6062

4479.6

-1582.4

37.4

30

73.9

Ukrainians

875.7

547.1

-328.6

5.4

3.7

62.5

The Germans

946.9

353.4

-593.5

5.8

2.4

37.3

Tatars

320.7

249

-71.7

2

1.7

77.6

Belarusians

177.9

111.9

-66.0

1.1

0.7

62.9

Koreans

100.7

99.7

-1

0.6

0.7

98.9

Azerbaijanis

89

78.3

-10.7

0.5

0.5

88

The Poles

59.4

47.3

-12.1

0.4

0.3

79.7

Kurds

25.4

32.8

7.4

0.2

0.2

129.1

Chechens

49.1

31.8

-17.3

0.3

0.2

64.8

Bashkirs

40.9

23.2

-17.7

0.3

0.2

56.7

Moldovans

32.4

19.5

-12.9

0.2

0.1

60.1

Ingush people

19.5

16.9

-2.6

0.1

0.1

86.5

Mordovians

29.2

16.1

-13.1

0.2

0.1

55.4

Armenians

18.5

14.8

-3.7

0.1

0.1

79.9

Greeks

46.3

12.7

-33.6

0.3

0.1

27.5

Bulgarians

10.2

6.9

-3.3

0.1

0.0

67.6

Lezgins

13.8

4.6

-9.2

0.1

0.0

33.4

Other

199.4

166.3

-33.1

1.2

1.1

83.4

Source: [Brief results of the 1999 population census in the Republic of Kazakhstan..., 1999, p. 11].

for Uzbeks - by 12%. In total, the indigenous population of Kazakhstan has grown by 22%, and its share - from 44 to 59.8%.

Similarly, the ratio of ethnic groups that historically professed Christianity and Islam has changed. In 1989, 7640.6 thousand Muslims and 8258.4 thousand Muslims lived on the territory of Kazakhstan. Christians made up 47.3% and 51% of the population, respectively. By the end of the 1990s, the main ethno-confessional groups had changed places. According to the 1999 census, there were 9077.8 thousand people in the country. Muslims and 5593.2 thousand Christians, in connection with which the share of the former increased to 60.7%, and the latter decreased to 37.5%. If on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Christians dominated among the inhabitants of Kazakhstan, which set it apart from the Muslim republics of Central Asia, then just ten years later, Muslims became the majority.

page 105
Assessing the overall results of the transformation of the ethno-demographic and confessional structure of Kazakhstan, it should be borne in mind that the initial data of the All-Union population census of 1989 were adjusted during the independence period [Alekseenko, 2001, pp. 82-97]. If, according to the State Statistics Committee of the USSR, the population of the Kazakh SSR in 1989 was 16,464. 5 thousand people (Demographic Yearbook 1990..., 1990, p. 42), then the publications of the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Statistics give the figure of 16,199. 2 thousand people [Brief results of the 1999 census in the Republic of Kazakhstan..., 1999, p. 42]. 5]. As a result, the population of Kazakhstan on the eve of the collapse of the USSR "decreased" by 265.3 thousand people (by 1.6%). However, the number of different ethnic groups "decreased" unevenly. If the number of Russians and Belarusians decreased by 2.6%, Ukrainians - by 2.3, then Kazakhs - by only 0.6% [Alekseenko, 2001, pp. 82-97].

Meanwhile, a comparison of the initial data of the 1989 census and the results of the 1999 census shows that the population of Kazakhstan decreased not by 1,246. 1 thousand, but by 1,510. 9 thousand (by 9.2%). The revision of the census results was mainly carried out at the expense of the Slavs, whose number by 1999 should have decreased not by 1,977 thousand, but by 2168.4 thousand, including Russians - by 1748.4 thousand "Decrease" in the number of Kazakhs, on the contrary, increased their total increase, which was not 1450 thousand, but 1488.1 thousand people [National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p. 13; Brief results of the 1999 population census in the Republic of Kazakhstan..., 1999, p. 5]. Adjusting the data of the 1989 census allowed not only to" reduce "the scale of depopulation of the population, but also to" increase " the share of the titular ethnic group, presenting the ethno-demographic structure of the country in a more favorable light.

Features of the ethno-demographic development of Kyrgyzstan were higher rates of increase of the indigenous and reduction of the non-indigenous population in comparison with Kazakhstan. In 1989-1999. the number of residents of the republic increased from 4.3 to 4.8 million (by 13.3%). At the same time, the number of Kyrgyz people increased by 40.3% (from 2.2 to 3.1 million people), while the number of Russians decreased by 34.2% (from 917 to 603 thousand), in connection with which the share of the former increased from 52.4 to 64.9%, and the latter decreased from 21.5 to 12.5%. Among the most numerous ethnic groups of the Kyrgyz Republic (KR), Russians fell to third place by 1999, after the second place to the Uzbeks (Table 7). According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, by January 1, 2007, there were no more than 470 thousand Russians in the republic (about 9% of the population), the number of which decreased compared to 1999 by 22%, and in comparison with 1989 - by 2 times [On the situation of compatriots in Kyrgyzstan..., 2009].

The number of other non-indigenous ethnic groups was declining even faster than that of the Russians. By the end of the 1990s, the number of Germans had decreased almost 5-fold (from 101.3 to 21.5 thousand), Jews-4-fold (from 5.6 to 1.6 thousand), Belarusians - 3 - fold (from 9.2 to 3.2 thousand), and Ukrainians-2-fold (from 108 to 50.4 thousand). The number of Tatars (from 70.1 to 45.4 thousand) and Azerbaijanis (from 16 to 14 thousand) decreased on a smaller scale, which, apparently, turned out to be more adapted to life in the Islamic region. A small demographic increase was observed among Koreans (from 18.4 to 19.8 thousand), who were engaged in commercial agriculture and therefore managed to better adapt to the conditions of the market economy [National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p. 17; First National Census of the Kyrgyz Republic 1999..., 2006].

All indigenous ethnic groups showed significant population growth, although not as high as that of the Kyrgyz. On a similar scale (by 40.4%), only the number of Dungans increased, which due to their small number (about 52 thousand people) they did not significantly affect the ethnic structure. In other indigenous ethnic groups, the growth rate was noticeably lower. The number of Uighurs increased by 26.9% (from 37 to 47 thousand), Tajiks-by 27.2% (from 34 to 43 thousand), Uzbeks-by 20.9% (from 550 to 665 thousand), Kazakhs - by 14.5% (from 37 to 43 thousand) [Main results of the First National Census of the Kyrgyz Republic Republics..., 2000, p. 26]. Total number of indigenous ethnic groups of the Kyrgyz Republic

page 106
Table 7

Dynamics of the ethnic composition of the Kyrgyz population, 1989-1999

Ethnic group

Number, thousand people

Growth/decrease, thousand people

Specific gravity, %

1999 in % to 1989

1989

1999

1989

1999

The entire population

4257.8

4822.9

565.2

100

100

113.3

Indigenous

2924.3

3976.9

1052.6

68.7

82.5

136

Kyrgyz people

2229.7

3128.1

898.5

52.4

64.9

140.3

Uzbeks

550.1

665

114.9

12.9

13.8

120.9

Dungane

36.9

51.8

14.8

0.9

1.0

140.4

Uyghurs

36.8

46.7

10

0.9

1.0

126.9

Kazakhs

37.3

42.7

5.4

0.9

0.9

114.5

Tajiks

33.5

42.6

9

0.8

0.9

127.2

Non-indigenous

1333.5

846

-487.5

31.3

17.5

63.4

Russians

916.6

603.2

-313.4

21.5

12.5

65.8

Ukrainians

108

50.4

-57.6

2.5

1.0

46.7

Tatars

70.1

45.4

-24.6

1.6

0.9

64.8

The Turks

21.3

33.3

12

0.5

0.7

156.3

The Germans

101.3

21.5

-79.8

2.4

0.4

21.2

Koreans

18.4

19.8

1.4

0.4

0.4

107.6

Other

97.8

72.4

-25.4

2.3

1.5

74

Source: [Main results of the First National Population Census of the Kyrgyz Republic..., 2000, p. 26].

It increased from 2.92 to 3.98 million, and non-indigenous people-decreased from 1.33 million to 846 thousand, as a result of which the share of the former increased from 68.7 to 82.5%, and the latter decreased from 31.3 to 17.5% [National composition of the population of the USSR, 1990, p. 17; Main results of the First National Census of the Kyrgyz Republic..., 2000, p. 26].

The sharp decline in the non-indigenous population resulted in a significant increase in the proportion of Muslims and a decrease in the proportion of Christians. During 1989-1999, the share of Christians in Kyrgyzstan decreased from 26.7% to 14%, or almost twofold, while that of Muslims increased from 71% to 84%. Among Christians, in turn, the share of Orthodox Christians increased from 91 to 97%, which was characterized by a lower level of migration outflow [National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p. 17; Main results of the First National Census of the Kyrgyz Republic..., 2000, p. 26]. Thus, the population of the republic has become much more mono-confessional, but at the same time the uniformity of its Christian component has noticeably increased.

In general, the increase in the indigenous population and the decline in the non-indigenous population in Kyrgyzstan occurred much faster than in Kazakhstan, which, apparently, was due to a stronger socio-economic crisis, a smaller number and a shorter adaptation of the "European" community. The profound changes in the ethnic structure were reflected in the fact that the second largest ethnic group by 1999, instead of Russians, was the Uzbeks concentrated in the southern regions. As a result, interethnic contradictions increasingly shifted to the area of Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations, which in 1990 were already overshadowed by the bloody Osh conflict.

In Tajikistan, which experienced the longest and fiercest civil war in the post-Soviet space, the migration outflow of non-indigenous people in the early 1990s took on the character of an avalanche-like flight. In the context of one of the highest rates of natural growth of the titular population in the region, the almost complete disappearance of non-indigenous ethnic groups has led to the fact that the Republic of Tad-

page 107
Table 8

Dynamics of the ethnic composition of the population of Tajikistan, 1989-2000

Ethnic group

Number of employees, thousand.

Growth/decrease, thousand people

Specific gravity, %

2000 in % to 1989

1989

2000

1989

2000

The entire population

5092.6

6127.5

1034.9

100

100

120.3

Indigenous

4473.2

5941.02

1467.8

87.8

97

132.8

Tajiks

3172.4

4898.4

1726

62.3

79.9

154.4

Uzbeks

1197.8

936.7

-261.1

23.5

15.3

78.2

Kyrgyz people

63.8

65.5

1.7

1.3

1.1

102.6

Turkmens

20.5

20.3

-0.2

0.4

0.3

98.9

Kazakhs

11.4

0.9

-10.5

0.2

-

8.2

Jews of Central Asia.

4.9

0.02

-4.88

0.1

-

0.3

The Afghans

2.1

4.7

2.6

0.1

0.1

2.3 times more

The Arabs

0.3

14.5

14.2

-

0.3

by 52 times

Non-indigenous

612

104.4

507.6

12

1.7

17.1

Russians

388.5

68.2

-320.3

7.6

1.1

17.5

Tatars

72.2

18.9

-53.3

1.4

0.3

26.2

Ukrainians

41.4

3.8

-37.6

0.8

0.1

9.2

The Germans

32.7

1.1

-31.6

0.7

-

3.5

Koreans

13.4

1.7

-11.7

0.3

-

12.6

Jews

9.7

0.2

-9.5

0.2

-

1.9

Ossetians

7.9

1.0

-6.9

0.2

-

12.2

Belarusians

7.2

0.5

-6.7

0.2

-

6.4

Crimean Tatars

7.2

0.1

-7.1

0.2

-

1.9

Bashkirs

6.8

0.9

-5.9

0.1

-

12.8

Armenians

5.7

1

-4.7

0.1

-

17.6

Mordovians

5.5

0.3

-5.2

0.1

-

5.4

Azerbaijanis

3.6

0.8

-2.8

0.1

-

22.4

Chuvash people

2.5

0.2

-2.3

0.1

-

7.8

Gypsies

1.8

4.2

2.4

-

0.1

by 2.4 times

Laks

1.4

0.1

-1.3

-

-

10.5

Bulgarians

1.1

0.1

-1.0

-

-

6

Georgians

1.0

0.2

-0.8

-

-

16.5

Moldovans

0.9

0.3

-0.6

-

-

38.8

The Turks

0.8

0.7

-0.1

-

-

87.5

The Poles

0.7

0.1

-0.6

-

-

10.3

Other

7.35

6.3

-1.05

0.1

0.1

85.7

Source: [Population Census of Tajikistan, 2002, p. 39].

Zhikistan (RT) has become one of the most mono-ethnic and mono-confessional states of the CIS.

In 1989-2000, the population of Tajikistan increased by 20.3% and reached 6.1 million people [Census of Tajikistan, 2002, p. 39]. At the same time, its growth was almost exclusively due to Tajiks, whose number increased from 3.2 to 4.9 million people (by 54.4%). If in 1989 they accounted for 62.3%, then in 2000 - already 79.9% of the population of the Republic of Tatarstan (Table 8).
The number of other indigenous ethnic groups of the Republic of Tatarstan, as a rule, decreased. Thus, the number of Uzbeks decreased from 1.2 to 0.9 million. (by 21.8%), and the specific weight-from 23.5 to 15.3%,

page 108
Kazakhs - from 11.4 to 0.9 thousand (12.7 times), Turkmens - from 20.5 to 20.3 thousand, Central Asian Jews - from 4.9 to 0.02 thousand, and only Kyrgyz-increased from 63.8 to 65.5 thousand. The sharp increase in the number of Arabs (52 times) was due to the fact that in previous Soviet censuses they were included in other ethnic groups (Bushkov and Tolstova, 2001, p.161). For the same reasons, the 2000 census included data on the Turkic-speaking ethnic groups of Lakais (51,000), Katagans (4.9,000), Barlos (3.7 thousand) and Yuzov (1.1 thousand), who were previously considered Uzbeks, and Kongrats (15.1 thousand), who were previously considered Kazakhs [Tajik Census, 2002, p. 39].

Non-indigenous ethnic groups have almost completely left Tajikistan. The number of Crimean Tatars decreased by 72, Jews-by 48.5, Germans-by 29.7, Mordovians - by 18.3 times, Belarusians, Chuvash, Bulgarians, Ukrainians-by 11-14 times, Koreans, Ossetians, Bashkirs, Poles-by 7.0-7.9 times, Armenians and Georgians-by 5-5. 7 times, Azerbaijanis, Tatars, Moldovans - by 3-4. 5 times. The number of Russians, who, according to the 1989 census, were the third ethnic group of the republic, decreased by 5.7 times (from 388.5 to 68.2 thousand), and the share - from 7.6 to 1.1%. Most of them lived in Dushanbe and Sughd province , the only region of Tajikistan that was not affected by military actions during the conflict [Population Census of Tajikistan, 2002, p. 39].

In general, the number of non-indigenous ethnic groups in Tajikistan during 1989-2000 decreased from 612 to 104.4 thousand people, and their share - from 12 to 1.7%. The decline of the non-indigenous population continued in the following years. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, by 2007 there were 60-65 thousand "ethnic Russians" in Tajikistan, including no more than 50 thousand Russians (less than 1% of the population) [On the situation of compatriots in Tajikistan..., 2009]. As a result, today on the streets of Tajik cities, according to the Izvestia correspondent, "it is very rare to meet a civilian" person of Slavic nationality " [Izvestia. 2003, June 23].

Muslims in the post-Soviet period became almost the only religious group in the republic. In 1989-2000, their share increased from 89.5% to 98.5%, while the share of Christians decreased from 9.6% to 1.2% [Tajik Census, 2002, p.39]. Unlike other Central Asian countries, where a significant part of the population was still Christians, the population of Tajikistan became almost entirely Muslim.

The transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of Uzbekistan took place more smoothly. Emigration of non-indigenous ethnic groups initially did not turn out to be so widespread here, which was due to both positive factors (relatively stable political and economic situation) and negative ones (difficulties with selling housing, obtaining necessary documents, direct administrative bans on leaving) [Post-Soviet Central Asia..., 1998, pp. 120-121; Starchenkov, 1995, p. 11]. Despite the rapid growth of the titular ethnic group, at the turn of the 1990s-2000s, a large European population remained in Uzbekistan, which played an important role in its socio-economic development.

During 1989-1999, the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan grew from 19.8 to 24.1 million people, or by 22%, due to the natural growth of indigenous ethnic groups. The change in the number of indigenous and non-indigenous populations was mainly determined by the demographic dynamics of the two most numerous ethnic groups - Uzbeks and Russians, who together accounted for about 80% of the country's population. By 1999, the number of Uzbeks had increased by 32.5% (from 14.1 to 18.7 million), while the number of Russians had decreased by 26.9% (from 1.6 to 1.2 million), as a result of which the share of the former increased from 71.4 to 77.6%, and the latter decreased from 8.3 to 5% (Table 9). By the end of 2002, about 1 million Russians remained in the republic, making up about 4% of the population [On the situation of compatriots and the status of the Russian language in Uzbekistan..., 2002]. Among non-indigenous ethnic groups, the number of Germans and Jews decreased most sharply (by 4.5 times), followed by Ukrainians, Tatars (by 1.3 times), Armenians (by 11.8%), Azerbaijanis (by 6.8%) and Koreans (by 3.3%). By the end of the 1990s, the share of most of them did not exceed-

page 109
Table 9

Dynamics of the ethnic composition of the population of Uzbekistan, 1989-1999

Ethnic group

Number, thousand people

Growth/decrease, thousand people

Specific gravity, %

1999 in % to 1989

1989

1999

1989

1999

The entire population

19 810

24136

4326

100

100

121.8

Indigenous

16 593

21 746

5153

83.8

90.1

131.1

Uzbeks

14 142

18 738

4596

71.4

77.6

132.5

Tajiks

934

1165

231

4.7

4.8

124.7

Kazakhs

808

967

159

4.1

4

119.7

Karakalpaks

412

518

106

2.1

2.1

125.7

Kyrgyz people

175

216

41

0.9

0.9

123.4

Turkmens

122

142

20

0.6

0.6

116.4

Non-indigenous

2657

1921

-736

13.4

8

72.3

Russians

1653

1208

-445

8.3

5

73.1

Tatars

468

317

-151

2.4

1.3

67.7

Koreans

183

177

-6

0.9

0.7

96.7

Ukrainians

153

110

-43

0.8

0.5

71.9

Jews

65

14

-51

0.3

0.1

21.5

Armenians

51

45

-6

0.3

0.2

88.2

Azerbaijanis

44

41

-3

0.2

0.2

93.2

The Germans

40

9

-31

0.2

0.1

22.5

Other

560

469

-91

2.8

1.8

83.8

Sources: [National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p. 13; National composition of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan..., 2003].

Table 10

Dynamics of the ethnic composition of the population of Turkmenistan, 1989-1995

Ethnic group

Number, thousand people

Growth/decrease, thousand people

Specific gravity, %

1995 in % to 1989

1989

1995

1989

1995

The entire population

3522.7

4437.6

914.9

100

100

126

Indigenous

2968

3932.4

964.4

84.3

88.6

132.5

Turkmens

2536.6

3401.9

865.3

72.0

77.0

134.1

Uzbeks

317.3

407.1

89.8

9.0

9.2

128.3

Kazakhs

87.8

87

-0.8

2.5

2

99.1

Balochi

26.3

36.4

10.1

0.7

0.8

138.4

Non-indigenous

473.9

428.5

-45.4

13.5

9.7

90.4

Russians

333.9

298.8

-35.1

9.5

6.7

89.5

Tatars

39.2

36.4

-2.8

1.1

0.8

92.9

Ukrainians

35.6

23.1

-12.5

1.0

0.5

64.9

Armenians

31.8

33.6

1.8

0.9

0.8

105.7

Azerbaijanis

33.4

36.6

3.2

0.9

0.8

109.6

Source: [Population Census of Turkmenistan..., 1996, p. 67].

page 110
Only Tatars occupied a significant place in the ethnic structure (1.3%). The uneven decline of non-indigenous ethnic groups, as in other Central Asian countries, was due to the high emigration of Germans and Jews, as well as the better adaptation of Koreans and Caucasians to the new economic situation. In general, the number of non-indigenous population of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the 1990s decreased from 2.7 to 1.9 million people, and the share - from 13.4 to 8.1% [National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p. 13; National composition of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan..., 2003].

The number of indigenous non-titular ethnic groups grew 1.5-2 times slower than the Uzbeks, and their share remained almost unchanged. In 1989-1999, the number of Karakalpaks increased by 25.7%, Tajiks - by 24.7%, Kyrgyz - by 23.4%, Kazakhs - by 19.7%, and Turkmens - by 16.4%. In total, indigenous ethnic groups accounted for 90.1% of the republic's population by 1999. However, some researchers consider the data on the number of Tajiks to be underestimated. According to the Russian ethnologist Yu. G. Kulchik, the number of Tajiks in Uzbekistan on the eve of the collapse of the USSR was 1.5-2 times higher than the official data (934 thousand), and in Bukhara and Samarkand they formed the majority of the population (Kulchik, 1995). According to the American scholar D. Schoberlein-Engel, Tajik rather than Uzbek speech is more often heard on the streets of Samarkand today [Schoberlein-Engel, 1997, p. 60].

The confessional homogeneity of the population in Uzbekistan has increased more strongly than in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where a large non-Muslim population has remained, but is weaker than in Tajikistan. In 1989-1999, the number of Muslims increased by 29%, while the number of Christians decreased by 28%. As a result, the share of Muslims increased from 86.4% to 91.5%, and Christians, whose number Uzbekistan ranked second in the region after Kazakhstan, decreased from 9.6% to 5.8% (National composition of the population of the USSR..., 1990, p.13; National composition of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan..., 2003).

In general, the rate of depopulation of non-indigenous ethnic groups in Uzbekistan was lower than in most of the neighboring republics of Central Asia, which was explained by a more stable political and economic situation.

Turkmenistan is one of the most complex countries in terms of studying ethno-demographic processes. This is due to the problem of reliability of demographic statistics, which arose shortly after the collapse of the USSR. Since 1992, the State Statistics Committee of Turkmenistan has reported an overestimated population in its publications, which was reproduced in the materials of the 1995 census and a number of publications of the CIS Statistical Committee. According to S. V. Zhukov and O. B. Reznikova, the "postscript" was approximately 0.4 million people, which sharply reduced the adequacy of all demographic data [Zhukov and Reznikova, 2001, p. 32-40].

According to the 1995 census, Turkmenistan, like other Central Asian countries, experienced a rapid increase in the indigenous population and a decline in the non-indigenous population (Table 10). If the total population of the republic increased by 26% in 1989-1995, the number of Turkmens increased by 34.1% (from 3.5 to 4.4 million), Uzbeks - by 28.3% (from 317 to 407 thousand), and Balochs - by 38.4% (from 26 to 36 thousand). Differences in demographic growth rates As a result, the share of Turkmens increased from 72 to 77%, Uzbeks - from 9 to 9.2%, Balochs-from 0.7 to 0.8%, and a slight decrease in the number of Kazakhs (by 0.8 thousand) resulted in a decrease in their share from 2.5 to 2% of the population [Population Census of Turkmenistan..., 1996, p. 67].

If we follow the data of the 1995 census, the population growth rate of Turkmenistan in 1991-1994 increased almost twofold (from 2.5 to 4.65%) in comparison with the period 1989-1991, which indicated an unprecedented demographic "explosion". At the same time, the corresponding indicator for Turkmens increased from 3.1% to 6%, and for Uzbeks-from 3.2% to 4.75%. Meanwhile, in Uzbekistan, whose demographic development during the 1980s was comparable to Turkmenistan, the population in the 1990s continued to grow by 2% per year [Zhukov, Reznikova, 2001, p. 36-37].

page 111
The demographic dynamics of non-indigenous ethnic groups in 1989-1995 was multidirectional. If the number of Russians who lost the status of the second ethnic group of the republic to the Uzbeks decreased by 10.5% (from 334 to 299 thousand), Ukrainians - by 35.1% (from 35.6 to 23.1 thousand), Tatars-by 7.1% (from 39.2 to 36.4 thousand), the number of Armenians increased by 5.7% (from 31.8 to 33.6 thousand), and Azerbaijanis - by 9.6% (from 33.4 to 36.6 thousand). However, only Russians continued to occupy a significant place in the ethnic structure, the share of which decreased from 9.5 to 6.7%. Other non-indigenous ethnic groups accounted for less than one percent of the population by the mid-1990s. In general, the number of non-indigenous population of Turkmenistan during this period decreased by 9.6% (from 474 to 429 thousand), and its share - from 13.5 to 9.7% [Census of Turkmenistan..., 1996, p. 67].

There are no ethnic statistics for a later period. The only reference point is the speech of President S. Niyazov before the People's Council in February 2001, during which he stated that Turkmens make up 91%, Uzbeks - 3%, and Russians - 2% of the country's population [Neutral Turkmenistan..., 2001, April 14].

Based on these data, the number of Russians can be estimated at about 1 thousand people. Similar estimates were given by the Chairman of the Council of Russian Communities of Turkmenistan A. Fomin (100-120 thousand) [Conservative, 2003, February 14], as well as in the documents of the Russian Foreign Ministry (about 100 thousand) [Situation of compatriots in Turkmenistan..., 2009]. Thus, in the six years since the 1995 census, the number of Russians has decreased 2.5-3 times, which is comparable to their emigration from Tajikistan during the civil war.

The number of Turkmens compared to other ethnic groups has increased especially significantly. According to official data, their number in 1989-2001. It has increased from 2.5 to 5 million people, or 2 times, which exceeds all real opportunities for demographic growth. If we take as a baseline the annual growth rate of 2.5%, typical for the period of the 1980s, the number of Turkmens will be 1.5 times lower and will amount to about 3.4 million. That is, they will be the smallest titular ethnic group in the region, which, apparently, was one of the reasons for the overestimation of their number. This is indirectly confirmed by the statement made by S. Niyazov in May 2003 about plans to relocate 2-3 million people to Turkmenistan. Anatolian Turks, meaningless in the context of a demographic "explosion" [Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 23.05.2003].

In general, by the early 2000s, Turkmenistan had become one of the most mono-ethnic and mono-confessional states in the region. The titular ethnic group accounted for more than 3/4, Muslims - more than 9/10 of the population of the republic, and in terms of the number of ethnic Russians, Turkmenistan occupied the penultimate place in Central Asia, ahead of only Tajikistan.

GENERAL TRENDS

During the first decade and a half after the collapse of the USSR, the change in the ethno-confessional structure of the sovereign states of Central Asia was characterized by an increase in the absolute and relative number of indigenous, as well as a decrease in non-indigenous ethnic groups. At the same time, the growth rate of the titular population, as a rule, was higher than that of other indigenous ethnic groups, and the number of Russians decreased more slowly than that of other groups of the non-indigenous population.

The decline of the Russian population in the countries of the region was uneven. If the total number of Russians in Central Asia during 1989-1999-2000 decreased by about 29%, then in Kazakhstan (by 26.1%) and Uzbekistan (by 26.9%) it decreased more slowly, and in Kyrgyzstan (by 34.2%), Turkmenistan (by 2-3 times) and Tajikistan (by 5.7 times) it decreased significantly. faster than in the whole region (Table 11). The rate of decline in the European population was higher in countries with a difficult political and socio-economic situation, and lower where the situation was more stable.

page 112
Table 11

Comparison of the main results of changes in the ethnic composition of the population

Ethnic group

Number, thousand people

Growth/decrease, thousand people

Specific gravity, %

1999 in % to 1989

1989

1999*

1989

1999*

Kazakhstan

16 199.2

14 953.1

-1246.1

100

100

92.3

Indigenous

7082.1

8641.3

1559.2

43.7

57.8

122

Kazakhs

6496.9

7985

1488.1

40.1

53.4

122.9

Non-indigenous

8917.6

6145.6

-2772

55

41.1

68.9

Russians

6062

4479.6

-1582.4

37.4

30

73.9

Kyrgyzstan

4257.80

4822.90

565.20

100

100

113.30

Indigenous

2924.3

3976.9

1052.6

68.7

82.5

136

Kyrgyz people

2229.7

3128.1

898.5

52.4

64.9

140.3

Non-indigenous

1333.5

846

-487.5

31.3

17.5

63.4

Russians

916.6

603.2

-313.4

21.5

12.5

65.8

Tadjikistan

5092.6

6127.5

1034.9

100

100

120.3

Indigenous

4473.2

5941

1467.8

87.8

97

132.8

Tajiks

3172.4

4898.4

1726

62.3

79.9

154.4

Non-indigenous

612

104.4

507.6

12

1.7

17.1

Russians

388.5

68.2

-320.3

7.6

1.1

17.5

Uzbekistan

19 810

24 136

4326

100

100

121.8

Indigenous

16 593

21 746

5153

83.8

90.1

131.1

Uzbeks

14 142

18 738

4596

71.4

77.6

132.5

Non-indigenous

2657

1921

-736

13.4

8

72.3

Russians

1653

1208

-445

8.3

5

73.1

Turkmenistan

3522.7

4437.6

914.9

100

100

126

Indigenous

2968

3932.4

964.4

84.3

88.6

132.5

Turkmens

2536.6

3401.9

865.3

72

77

134.1

Non-indigenous

473.9

428.5

-45.4

13.5

9.7

90.4

Russians

333.9

298.8

-35.1

9.5

6.7

89.5

Central Asia

48 882.3

54 477.1

5594.8

100

100

111.4

Indigenous

34 040.6

44 237.6

10 197

69.6

81.2

130

Titular ethnic groups

28 577.6

38 151.4

9573.8

58.5

70

133.5

Non-indigenous

13 994

9445.5

-4548.5

28.6

17.3

67.5

Russians

9354

6657.8

-2696.2

19.1

12.2

71.2

* Data for Turkmenistan are given for 1995, for Tajikistan-for 2000.

Sources: Data from tables 6-10.

However, the emigration of Russians from Central Asia, being a mass phenomenon, did not take on the character of a general flight, with the exception of Tajikistan. The sovereign states of the region still have more than half of the Russian population that lived on their territory at the time of the collapse of the USSR. After Ukraine, where there are about 11 million ethnic Russians, the Central Asian countries are the second most important demographic reservoir of the foreign Russian population (about 5 million), most of which live in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

The growth rates of titular ethnic groups also differed significantly. If the number of Kazakhs increased by 22.9%, then Uzbeks - by 32.5, Turkmens - by 34.1, Kyrgyz - by 40.3, and Tajiks - by 54.4%. That is, the number of Central Asian ethnic groups grew 1.4-2.4 times faster than the number of Kazakhs, which led to a further strengthening of the agrarian policy of Kazakhstan.-

page 113
It is also associated with a significant increase in population density and a shift in the demographic "center of gravity" to the south of the region. In total, the share of the indigenous population of Central Asia increased from 69.6% to 81.2% by the beginning of the 2000s, while the non-indigenous population decreased from 28.6% to 17.3%, or 1.7 times.

Simultaneously with the decline of the European population, rapid demographic growth of the region's most numerous people, the Uzbeks, was observed everywhere. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Uzbeks became the second largest ethnic group in Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, ahead of the Russians. At the turn of the 1990s - 2000s, there were 370.7 thousand of them in Kazakhstan, 665 thousand in Kyrgyzstan, about 400 thousand in Turkmenistan, and 936.7 thousand in Tajikistan. At the same time, the real number of Uzbeks, who usually lived in border areas and represented, from the point of view of neighboring states, a real danger of ethnic separatism, was significantly higher than officially stated.

Summing up the general results of the ethno-demographic development of the sovereign states of Central Asia, it should be noted that their population has become much more mono-ethnic and mono-confessional. By the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, the titular ethnic group accounted for more than 1/2 of the population of Kazakhstan, 2/3 of the population of Kyrgyzstan, and more than 3/4 of the population of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The share of Muslims was even higher, accounting for more than 60% of the population in Kazakhstan, 80% in Kyrgyzstan, and 90% in other Central Asian states. As a result of the reduction in the share of the European population, the region's ethno-confessional appearance became increasingly "Asian" and Muslim, which made it typologically similar to neighboring countries in the Middle East.

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page 115


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