On December 4, 2013, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a scientific conference dedicated to the 100-day term of the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in power in the country. Employees of scientific institutes of the Academy of Sciences, teachers and students of Moscow universities, representatives of scientific and practical organizations, representatives of the Embassy of Iran and the Cultural Representation of Iran in the Russian Federation made presentations and discussions at the conference. The topic proposed for discussion at the conference attracted a wide response. Fifteen reports covering almost all spheres of activity of the new Iranian government were read out at the conference.
Most of the reports were devoted to the foreign policy aspect of the activities of the new Iranian leadership, but the conference began with reports containing an analysis of the situation in the sphere of the Iranian economy, domestic policy, including in the field of national relations, social and cultural spheres of the Iranian government's activities during the specified period.
The conference was opened by the head of the Department. N. M. Mammadova's report on the economic policy of the Government of the Republic of Iran and the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Rouhani. She noted that already in 2012, the economic situation in Iran noticeably worsened, and by mid-2013, i.e. by the time of the presidential elections, it turned out to be extremely difficult. GDP growth figures for 2013 turned negative for the first time in 20 years. Since the negative GDP trend clearly coincided with the strengthening of sanctions, it can be assumed that the main reason for the economic crisis was not so much economic policy as such, but rather the sanctions regime. Under the following conditions:-
In a period of forced isolation from the world market and reduced foreign investment, the Ahmadinejad government has relied on domestic development factors-encouraging domestic producers, broad privatization of state-owned manufacturing companies and banks, and reducing subsidies for electricity, gas, water, bread, and transport. In general, these programs were approved by the Rakhbar and the Mejlis of the country, and also received a positive assessment from the IMF. Although economic growth slowed down, the accumulated economic potential and social support provided to the least affluent segments of the population prevented a social explosion. Analysis of the activities carried out by the Government of X. According to the speaker, Rouhani's progress in the economic sphere during the first months of his stay in power allows us to conclude that so far there are no serious and somewhat drastic changes in the country's economic course. For Government X. Rouhani's primary goal is the most complete lifting of sanctions. The economic recovery that has begun, including in relations with foreign companies, is mainly due to hopes for a gradual easing of sanctions. At the same time, from Mammadova's point of view, the solution to the problems of the Iranian economy lies not only in lifting sanctions, but also in liberalizing the economy, which should become the basis for eliminating corruption and the shadow market.
The internal political situation in Iran and the social problems of the Iranian society were analyzed by E. V. Dunaeva (Institute of Political Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences), who noted that the course of the election campaign and the election results significantly changed the balance of power in the domestic political arena. Although X. Rouhani is very close to the reformist circle, he is not a representative of it and won the election as an independent candidate who is not directly associated with any political camp. Goal X. Rouhani - restoring balance on the political scene, eradicating radicalism, right or left, establishing cooperation between the authorities. The new president's main slogan is moderation. According to the speaker, the election results suggest the possibility of the emergence of a centrist movement, which will unite moderate liberals and pragmatists from the conservative camp, who understand the need for transformation. The results of the local council elections, which were held together with the presidential ones, also indicate the victory of moderate forces ready to adjust the course of domestic and foreign policy. Iranian society is waiting for the X reforms. Rouhani, although the main focus is on the issue of easing sanctions. It takes steps aimed at liberalizing domestic political and public life, fully realizing the rights and freedoms of citizens, removing restrictions on the activities of the media, and activating civil society institutions, but within the framework of the Islamic system. Rouhani is ready to pursue gradual, careful, balanced reforms that are consistent with the existing structures of power and the country's constitution, as well as taking into account the needs of different social strata of society. Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who controls all the country's governance mechanisms, shows support for the president.
M. S. Kameneva (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) considered some aspects of the cultural situation in Iran during the reign of Hassan Rouhani. She noted that Iranian culture is an important component of the state-political and ideological doctrine of modern Iran. Therefore, the problems of Iranian culture were not ignored by the Iranian leadership, but such a short period of time - one hundred days-does not allow us to talk about the emergence of any absolutely new or previous trends in the development of Iranian culture during this period. In this regard, the speaker focused on the formation of the cultural block of the new government of Iran, and first of all, two key figures for the future of Iranian culture (for the next four years), namely, the Minister of Culture and Islamic Orientation Ali Jannati and the Minister of Education Ali Asghar Fani. Ali Jannati is a professional political figure and diplomat, close to the moderate wing of the clergy, especially Hashemi Rafsanjani, who previously worked with Hassan Rouhani on the Board of Trustees of the Iranian Broadcasting Company. Dr. Ali Asghar Fani is a specialist in the field of public administration, winner of a number of national awards, a state functionary who has held important positions, including in the field of educational activities. In the government, M. Khatami was a Deputy Minister of Education. An active reformer who headed the Cultural Workers ' Headquarters in Moscow during the 2009 presidential election. Mousavi.
The topic of the presentation by L. M. Ravandi-Fadai (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) is national relations in Iran. It paid attention to a special "Programme on the National Question" prepared by
X. Rouhani immediately after his election as president of the country. The program, which consists of nine points, notes the need to prepare legislation in the field of national relations for the implementation of articles of the Constitution aimed at combating discrimination on the basis of nationality, at implementing the principle of governing the country by the "elite of the gifted", regardless of nationality, native language, professed religion of its representatives. In this regard, issues are discussed on the need to reform the system of teaching residents of national regions of Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs and others - their native language in schools and universities in accordance with the basic law of the country; on the development of the culture of various ethnic groups of Iran in order to maintain and preserve the ancient Iranian cultural heritage. It is important to call for the observance of the rights of followers of religions other than Islam, granting them freedom of religion and religious worship on equal terms with others. The need to develop short-term economic, social, cultural and other programs, especially for the poor and border areas, including those affected by the Iran-Iraq war, and allocate funds for them from the compensation budget is also not ignored. Kurdistan, Sistan and Baluchistan remain the main problem for the Iranian leadership in solving national problems. The speaker stressed that the national policy proposed by the new president was once implemented by M. Khatami, who was defeated as a result of strong opposition from Rahbar and the conservative camp.
A block of reports was devoted to various aspects of Hassan Rouhani's foreign policy activities, most of which more or less touched upon the results of the Geneva talks on the Iranian nuclear issue.
V. I. Yurtaev (RUDN University) considered the peculiarities of Iran's diplomacy and implementation of its foreign policy, including in relation to the Russian Federation. In 2013, Rouhani declared his readiness to make changes to the Iranian foreign policy. The basis for this model should be a synthesis of the five "principles of faith", which will fully reveal the universalist potential contained in their unity and a targeted call to mobilize efforts to achieve the country's foreign policy goals. It is expected that the president will be able to solve the problem of opening up the country and lifting sanctions, find a way out of the "atomic impasse", and offer a model of Iranian diplomacy designed for the long term. In this regard, Russia and Iran have time to build a new model of bilateral relations.
I. E. Fedorova (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) highlighted new trends that have emerged in the foreign policy course of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After X came to power. Rouhani put forward a thesis about "constructive interaction" with the international community, which is based on the idea of preserving national interests by strengthening confidence-building measures and detente. However, fundamental changes in the foreign policy course cannot be expected without a change in the regime's ideological foundation. What is new in the activities of the Iranian authorities is the adjustment of certain areas of foreign policy in order to ease economic sanctions against Iran. This primarily concerns the concessions that Iran made during the Geneva talks in November 2013. The successful completion of the first stage of negotiations indicates the beginning of normalization of relations between Iran and Western countries. The President considers improving relations with the countries of the region to be an important direction of Iran's foreign policy. However, Iran's rather rigid position on a number of acute problems in the region - the Syrian conflict, the Middle East settlement process-creates obstacles on this path. As for Iran's relations with the Russian Federation, the emerging normalization of its relations with the world community, according to the speaker, creates prerequisites for the development of economic and trade relations between the two countries.
Vladimir Ivanenko (RISS) analyzed the main directions of US policy in the Middle East after the signing of the Iran agreements in Geneva. According to the speaker, the agreements with Tehran are explained, in particular, by the adjustment of Washington's approaches to ensuring its interests in the Middle East. Iran is interested in expanding its regional capabilities by conventional means, and therefore it is more profitable for the United States to have an ally in Israel who will not require them to launch a military strike against Iran under the pretext of having plans to create weapons of mass destruction. Iran's influence in Syria, as well as in Afghanistan, is also important for the United States in the light of the reduction of the NATO contingent in the IRA in 2014. All this, according to the speaker, coincides with the interests of Iran and affects the strengthening of its role in regional affairs.
On the issue of innovations in solving the Iranian nuclear problem in Iran's politics after the coming to the presidential power of X. V. I. Sazhin (IB RAS) addressed Rouhani. He noted that the President has taken a number of steps towards resolving the nuclear issue in order to free himself from the heavy burden of economic and financial sanctions imposed by both the UN Security Council and the West. On November 24, 2013, a document defining the fate of Iran's nuclear program was signed in Geneva. The speaker sees three possible scenarios for the implementation of the Geneva agreement. The first one is called "pacifying", according to which the terms of the Agreement are fulfilled, and in parallel a fundamental agreement is being prepared, which is concluded in six months or a year. As a result, Iran is returning to the global market of investment, technology, and finance and is becoming a powerful player not only in the Middle East, but also in the world. The second scenario is defined as "dangerous". Guided by it, opponents of the agreement in Iran, the United States and other leading countries "blow up" the agreements, the situation sharply escalates, and the specter of war against Iran again arises. In accordance with the third scenario - the "most realistic" - the terms of the Agreement are generally fulfilled by the parties with periodic accusations of each other's departure from obligations. However, currently there is no reason to talk about the failure to meet the requirements of the document. Negotiations on a much more complex, final agreement are still in the process of disputes and discussions. The time frame for its final completion varies, as the work is difficult, moving slowly forward, and constantly teetering on the edge of failure. There is still more work to be done to achieve the main goal of the comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran.
I. A. Svistunova (RISI) The report focused on the reaction of Iran's closest neighbor, Turkey, to the Iranian presidential election. Rouhani and prospects for the development of Turkish-Iranian relations. She noted that the presidential elections aroused considerable interest in the expert community of Turkey, which is explained by the dynamic development of Turkish-Iranian relations in recent years, as well as Iran's regional positions and international aspects of the Iranian nuclear program. Turkish experts expect that the change of the Iranian leadership will open a new period in Iran's domestic and foreign policy, but they do not predict rapid changes. The election of the Iranian president provided an opportunity for the Turkish leadership to try to "renew" relations, which have accumulated tensions due to differences in the approaches of the parties to the Syrian crisis. The first step on this path was the activation of diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Iran, during which the parties clearly indicated their intention to find common ground on the Syrian issue and prevent the deterioration of bilateral relations.
Five reports were devoted to Iran's bilateral relations with its traditional political and economic partners at a new stage of the country's development. L. M. Kulagina (IB RAS) reviewed new trends in Iran-Syria relations. The events of the "Arab Spring" led to a change in the balance of power and the restructuring of former alliances in the Middle East region. The events in Syria have become a severe test for Iran's foreign policy in defending its gains in the region. Iran, supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, opened a $ 3.6 billion credit line to him. Iran's elite military units are fighting on the side of Bashar al-Assad. At the same time, Iran fears that if it expands its military and financial assistance to Syria, it may face a military threat from the United States. Rouhani went to secret negotiations with the United States, which resulted in the so-called nuclear deal in November 2013. Certain changes have taken place in Iran's assessment of the Syrian events: Iran continues to play an important role in Syria, but its efforts are no longer aimed so much at protecting President Bashar al-Assad as at ensuring its interests both in Syria and in the Middle East as a whole. One of the signs of possible future changes in the Middle East is the convening of an international conference on resolving the Syrian crisis in Geneva in January 2014.
A. I. Polishchuk (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) described the current state of Iran-China relations, which were officially established between the two countries in August 1971. They became more active after the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, and until then they were mostly of a protocol nature. During the Iran-Iraq war, China sold more than $ 2 billion worth of weapons to Iran, accounting for 39% of all weapons imported by Iran during that war. Iran's military-technical cooperation with China continues at the present time and is especially noticeable in the field of rocket science. The speaker noted that Chinese firms in the Iranian market work mainly in the fields of oil and gas production, oil and gas production, and oil and gas production.-
energy, road construction, dam construction, cement factories, metallurgical and shipbuilding plants, as well as in the creation of the Tehran metro. Cooperation between the two countries is most clearly manifested in the foreign policy, energy, trade, economic and military areas, which are closely intertwined. Despite the sanctions regime, in recent years Iran has become not only one of the most important suppliers of oil to China, but also an object of massive Chinese investment. The deepening of bilateral ties between Iran and China suggests a tendency for them to develop into a strategic partnership.
Report by A.V. Ivin(MGIMO (U)) MFA of the Russian Federation) was devoted to the analysis of the prospects for the development of relations between the X government. Rouhani with the states of Transcaucasia. The speaker noted that this region has long-standing close and at the same time complex ties with Iran; Iran's policy is differentiated in relation to these countries in economic, visa, cultural and other issues. Iran traditionally views Armenia as the closest partner in Transcaucasia, primarily in the context of the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is building strategic partnership relations with Turkey, which is permanently unfriendly to Iran, as well as with the United States. Energy and the problems of the Armenian diaspora in Iran are an important factor in bilateral cooperation. In addition, in the absence of diplomatic relations with Georgia, all transit to Russia goes through this country. As for Azerbaijan, taking into account the religious community of the two countries, Iran is working in this direction, which causes active resistance of the Azerbaijani ruling elite. According to the speaker, Azerbaijan and Georgia can be considered theoretically as springboards for striking Iran. However, it seems likely that possible changes in the Western vector of Government X policy will occur. Rouhani will lead to changes in relations with the states of Transcaucasia.
N. A. Zamaraeva's report (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) was devoted to Pakistan-Iran relations at the present stage. The speaker noted that in 2008-2013, relations between Pakistan and Iran developed unevenly, due to external and internal factors. It was at this time that the United States and the European Union put pressure on Pakistan to abandon a $ 7.5 billion hydrocarbon project with Iran. However, the energy crisis in Pakistan has forced the ruling administration to reconsider the Iranian vector of foreign policy. In March 2013, the Presidents of Pakistan and Iran, Asif Ali Zardari and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, signed an agreement on the construction of a gas pipeline in Pakistan, which, according to the Pakistani side, met the national interests of the country. In 2013, there was a change of political leaders in both countries. The new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mian Muhammad, who listened to the recommendations of the United States, helped to "freeze" the discussion of the project with the Iranian side until November 2013. The easing of international sanctions against Iran revived the dialogue between the countries. Following the visit of the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran I. Rahimpour to Pakistan, the need to expand bilateral trade and economic relations was emphasized, and at the end of November 2013 The countries decided to develop a roadmap for the gas project. However, the lack of full funding as one of the obstacles to the implementation of this project did not allow the completion of the construction of the Pakistani part of the hydrocarbon line.
M. Shah (Institute of Political Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences) highlighted the problems of Iran-Afghanistan relations during the presidency of X. Rouhani. He stressed that the main principles of the new relations between the two countries were set out in the inaugural speech of the Iranian president and contained such provisions as continuity of good-neighborly relations, non-interference in each other's affairs, preservation of the territorial integrity of both countries, the need to develop trade, etc. Currently, Afghanistan is a zone of strategic interests for Iran, which is determined by their immediate neighborhood, the important geopolitical position of Afghanistan - a transit route for Iranian goods to the Central Asian states, the immediate neighborhood with the countries of the southern flank of the CIS and Russia, the presence in Iran of about 1.5 million, including unemployed, Afghan migrants, the problem of drug trafficking, the presence of Shia Muslims among the population of Afghanistan.
The reports read at the conference aroused the interest of those present and became the subject of discussion, during which it was emphasized that their main advantages were the novelty of the presented materials and an original approach to covering the stated issues.
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