Libmonster ID: UZ-739
Author(s) of the publication: V. P. ANDREEV


Candidate of Economic Sciences

Member of the Russian part of the Sub-Commission on Financial Cooperation

Russian-Chinese Commission for the preparation of regular meetings of Heads of Government

Vice-President of JSC Bank ZENIT

yuan Keywords:world reserve currency

The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, which was accompanied by a sharp increase in the instability of the world's leading currencies-the US dollar and the euro, both in relation to each other and in relation to the currencies of other countries, significantly accelerated the process of awareness by the world community of the need to reform the international monetary and financial system and expand the list of reserve currencies used in international settlements.

The most active role in promoting and implementing this idea is played by the BRICS member countries, primarily Russia and China. At the same time, it should be emphasized that Russia created the necessary legal framework for increasing the role of the ruble in international settlements much earlier than China.


As early as in the first edition (October 1992) of Federal Law No. 173-FZ "On Currency Regulation and Currency Control", it was declared that currency transactions using the Russian ruble on current balance of payments items are carried out without restrictions.

This made it possible, even at the first stage of market reforms in Russia, to ensure an increase in the liquidity of the foreign exchange market in the Russian Federation and to allow the use of the ruble in settlements on foreign trade, primarily with the CIS countries. Since June 1, 1996 on the basis of the presidential decree

The Russian Federation acceded to article VIII of the statute of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which meant that it assumed international obligations to maintain the convertibility of the Russian currency for current operations.

Russia, as part of its initiatives for the London G20 summit (2009), proposed instructing the IMF to study the possibility of creating a supranational reserve currency, as well as to diversify the currency structure of reserves and operations of national banks and international financial organizations. This idea was supported by many countries, including China. Hu Xiaolian, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, also said that the dollar's dominance and economic problems in the United States could lead to significant fluctuations in this currency, which will affect the global economic situation. Therefore, China called for the diversification of the global financial system and agreed to discuss Russia's proposal to find an alternative reserve currency for the dollar at the G20 summit in London1.

In the context of constant political and economic instability in the largest countries of the world, including the United States, the issue of a reserve currency is very acute, market participants around the world are looking for an alternative to the current reserve currencies, which, apparently, can no longer be trusted as much as before.2

In November 2010, the IMF acknowledged China's increased influence on the global economy, but said that the renminbi was not yet widely distributed enough to be included in the basket of special drawing rights, the IMF's currency. "Although China has become the third largest exporter of goods and services in the world based on a five-year analysis and has taken steps to increase the international use of its currency, management believes that the yuan does not meet the criteria for free circulation and therefore will not be included in the basket of special drawing rights at the moment. Against the backdrop of China's growing influence on the global economy, the IMF Board of Governors left the question of including the renminbi in this basket open, " the IMF report said 3.

page 2

In June 2011, IMF Deputy Director Naoyuki Shinohara reiterated that the yuan is not yet ready to be part of the basket of special drawing rights currencies. "The yuan's share in international transactions remains very, very small," Shinohara said at the World Economic Forum for East Asian Countries in Jakarta. However, he reiterated that the IMF is keeping the door open for the 4 yuan.

In March 2012, speaking to leading Chinese entrepreneurs and politicians, the head of the IMF, Lagarde, said that if the Chinese government continues to implement economic reforms, the yuan can become the reserve currency of the IMF, 5 and the President of the World Bank, R. Zoellick, spoke in favor of greater representation of Chinese specialists in the governing bodies of this organization.6

The need for greater use of national currencies in settlements among themselves and in general in international settlements is actively supported by all leaders of the BRICS countries. Adopted at the Fourth BRICS Summit (April 2012, New Delhi) The Delhi Declaration, in particular, emphasizes "the importance of a global financial architecture for maintaining the stability and integrity of the global monetary and financial system." It also calls for "a more representative international financial architecture in which developing countries have a greater voice and representation, and for the establishment and improvement of a fair international monetary system that can serve the interests of all countries and support the development of emerging market economies and developing countries." The New Delhi Summit discussed the possibility of creating a new Development Bank to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in the BRICS countries, as well as in other emerging and developing countries. A General Agreement on the establishment of credit lines in local currency under the BRICS interbank Cooperation mechanism was also signed, as well as a Multilateral Agreement on the Confirmation of Letters of Credit between Export-Import/Development Banks of the BRICS Countries7.


The leadership of the People's Republic of China, having focused on solving domestic economic problems and achieved impressive success in the economic sphere, began to reform monetary and financial regulation in the country a little later than Russia, when it was required by the needs of its own economy and its increased involvement in global economic processes.

Already in 2010, China became the second largest economy in the world in terms of GDP - about $6.03 trillion (39.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3% compared to 2009) 8 (in the US - $14.66 trillion). At the same time, China became the world leader in industrial production, ahead of the United States. In 2010, Chinese industry accounted for 19.8% of global production, while the United States accounted for 19.4% .9 According to the State Statistical Office of the People's Republic of China, China's GDP in 2011 grew by another 9.2% compared to the previous year and amounted to $7.5 trillion (47.2 trillion yuan).10.

China is the world's largest exporter and ranks 2nd in the world in terms of foreign trade. According to the State Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China, foreign trade turnover

China's GDP grew by 22.5% to $3.64 trillion in 2011. At the same time, the trade surplus decreased by 14.5% to $155.14 billion 11. However, the growth rate of foreign trade slowed down.

In 2011, exports grew by 20.3% to $1.9 trillion (an increase of 31.3% in 2010), while imports grew by 24.9% to $1.74 trillion (an increase of 38.7% in 2010). As a result, China's trade surplus in 2011 decreased by 14.5% year-on-year to $ 155.14 billion. The trade surplus contracted for the third time in a row: in 2009. it decreased from $295.47 billion to $ 196.07 billion in 2008. (by 34.2%) and in 2010 - to $183.1 billion. (by 6.4%).

According to forecasts of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, the country's foreign trade surplus will continue in 2012, but its size will continue to decline, and China's foreign trade will become more balanced 12.

The volume of direct investment by Chinese enterprises and companies abroad in 2010 amounted to $59 billion. (an increase of -36.3%), the total revenue from contracts for the construction of facilities and the provision of contract services abroad in 2010 amounted to $92.2 billion, respectively. (an increase of 18.7%) and $ 8.9 billion. At the same time, the volume of foreign direct investment attracted by China in 2010 it amounted to $105.7 billion. (an increase of 17.4 % compared to 2009). In 2011, the volume of Chinese direct investment abroad increased by only 1.8% compared to 2010 and amounted to $60.07 billion, bringing the total volume of Chinese non-financial investments* abroad to $ 322 billion 13.

Such an increase in China's influence on the global economy and finance has become a serious reason for the actions carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation.-

* Non-financial investments - non-monetary investments in the form of investment of rights, licenses, know-how, property in a project, in an enterprise, in a business (editor's note).

page 3

the so-called internationalization of the Chinese national currency, the renminbi yuan. The goal was to turn it into a freely convertible currency in the foreseeable future. This, in particular, was stated by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the March 2011 session of the National People's Congress. According to Liu Chengbi, a professor at the Institute of Economics of Beijing University of Commerce and Industry, the degree of internationalization of the national currency reflects the total state power and is a worthy proof of the economic influence of this country14.

China's global project to transform the national currency into one of the world's currencies has gone through several stages in its development and entered an active phase in December 2008. Then it was announced the use of yuan in settlements in cross-border trade between companies and enterprises located in the deltas of the Zhujiang and Yangtze Rivers with their counterparts in neighboring Hong Kong and Macau, as well as enterprises of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province with ASEAN countries. Prior to that, national currencies were used for settlements in China's cross-border trade with neighboring countries, including Russia, under special agreements that provide for this possibility in very limited territories and with significant restrictions due to the current currency and financial legislation of the PRC.


Already in April 2009, at a meeting of the Standing Committee of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, a decision was made on the experimental introduction in Shanghai, as well as four cities of Guangdong Province (Southern China) - Guangzhou, Shenzhen,

Zhuhai and Dongguan - a pilot project to use the yuan in cross-border trade. This project was launched on July 1, 2009, when the "Rules on the Use of the Yuan in Cross - Border Trade" were published, jointly issued by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the government departments of the People's Republic of China-the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the General Administration of Taxation and the Banking Supervision Commission. These five cities accounted for 45% of China's total trade turnover in 2008. Initially, 365 enterprises and companies were selected to participate in this pilot program, which were allowed to settle in RMB under trade contracts with their counterparts in Hong Kong, Macau and ASEAN countries.

By this time, the NBK has concluded mutual currency swap agreements* with the central banks of six foreign countries and territories for a total amount of more than 800 billion rubles. RMB (about $121 billion) - South Korea, Argentina, Belarus, Indonesia, Malaysia and Hong Kong**. Later, Singapore and Iceland also joined them (see Table 1). By entering into agreements with the PBOC to exchange their national currency for Chinese yuan, the central banks of these countries and territories were able to sell yuan to local companies that want to buy Chinese goods and pay for them in yuan.

In 2010-2012, the PBOC continued its practice of signing mutual currency swap agreements with other central banks, and by July 2012, China had signed mutual currency swap agreements with 17 countries and regions totaling more than 1.5 trillion yuan (including the extension of the agreement with the Bank of Korea and doubling the amount with Mongolia).


A year after the start of the pilot project, a new stage in its development has begun. In June 2010, the People's Bank of China extended the project of using the yuan in cross-border settlements with Hong Kong, Macao and ASEAN countries to all countries of the world, and within China it was expanded from 5 cities to 20 administrative divisions. The use of the yuan in international trade was allowed to enterprises and companies located in 20 administrative divisions of "mainland China": 4 cities of central subordination (Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shanghai), 12 provinces (Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Hainan, Yunnan, Sichuan, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangdong) and 4 autonomous regions (Guangxi Zhuang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang Uyghur, Tibet).

The term "mainland China" or mainland China, which usually does not include Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, unites 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions and 4 cities of central subordination. This means that the yuan has been used for international trade by businesses in most of China. At the same time, it should be noted that in these administrative divisions of "mainland" China, the use of yuan for foreign trade settlements was allowed for all companies importing foreign goods, and receiving yuan for exports from China was allowed only for companies that have passed the appropriate registration with local tax authorities, which is associated with the refund of value-added tax (VAT) at ex-

Swap - an operation to exchange a national currency for a foreign currency with the obligation to exchange it back after a certain period of time (editor's note).

** The Hong Kong Hong Kong Special Autonomous Region is still considered separately from the PRC in international and Chinese financial and economic statistics. ed.).

page 4

Table 1

Mutual currency swap agreements of the People's Bank of China with central banks of other countries and territories

Name of the country or territory

Swap amount, bln. RMB

Republic of Korea


Hong Kong














New Zealand


















the port. In December 2010 alone, the number of such companies was increased from the previous 365 to 67,359, which by that time had been checked and duly registered by the local Chinese tax authorities.

Speaking at the March 2011 session of the National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao said that by the end of 2011, all enterprises and companies in the entire territory of China will have the right to use the yuan in international trade settlements. However, it was not until March 2012 that the PBOC announced that all Chinese enterprises with an export-import license now have the right to settle foreign trade transactions in RMB15.

Despite the restrictions that remained in place until recently, the total volume of foreign trade settlements in RMB increased significantly between 2010 and 2011. At the end of 2011, the total volume of cross-border trade settlements in yuan since the pilot program was launched in July 2009 was 2.58 trillion yuan ($408 billion).16. At the same time, in 2011, the volume of foreign trade settlements in yuan exceeded $349 billion, which is approximately 9.5% of the total foreign trade turnover of the PRC.

Analysts at major global banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered, and J. P. Morgan estimate that about 80% of this volume in 2009-2010 came from payments made by Chinese enterprises for goods imported to China, while only about 20% came from payments made for Chinese exports. But this is not surprising when you consider that the number of Chinese exporting companies that were allowed to receive export revenue in yuan was very small until recently.

This imbalance between renminbi payments from and to China has led to significant amounts of renminbi accumulating in the accounts of Hong Kong bank customers since the beginning of international trade settlements in renminbi. According to the financial regulator of Hong Kong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) for 2009 - 2010, the total volume of deposits in RMB in Hong Kong increased more than 5 times - from 60 billion rubles. yuan ($9.13 billion) at the end of 2009 to almost 315 billion. RMB ($47.95 billion) at the end of December 2010 According to the Hong Kong government agency InvestHK, most of the total volume of deposits (57%) was in 117,000 corporate accounts with an average deposit amount of 1.3 million yuan (about $200,000), and the rest of the funds were in 2.2 million personal accounts of individuals with an average deposit amount of 54,000 yuan (just over $8k).

Such a situation, when the yuan received for goods and services delivered to China "hung" without movement on the accounts of companies and individuals, could not but cause concern for both yuan holders and relevant Chinese departments, as it undermined confidence in the global project of "internationalization" of the yuan. Therefore, in the summer of 2010, a number of important steps were taken to remove some restrictions on the use of yuan that ended up on foreign (primarily Hong Kong) accounts.


On July 19, 2010, the People's Bank of China and the Bank of China (Hong Kong), the only authorized clearing bank for RMB settlements in Hong Kong, signed a new agreement that allowed non-bank financial institutions to open RMB accounts without restrictions and allowed all RMB holders, both corporate and private, to transfer funds between RMB accounts in the United States.

page 5

Table 2

Interest rates on the cost of funding in RMB CNY HIBOR





Term of the promissory note




One-day tour




1 week




2 weeks




1 month




2 months




3 months




6 months




9 months




1 year old




various banks in Hong Kong for any purpose. This authorization created the basis for the development of RMB-denominated financial products and opened up new opportunities for investors to invest in RMB abroad. In short, a market for offshore yuan was created in Hong Kong, which received the designation SON (Chinese yuan with delivery in Hong Kong), in contrast to the usual letter code of the Chinese currency - CNY.

It should be noted, however, that control over RMB transfers from Hong Kong to mainland China has not been lifted completely. To prevent the possibility of uncontrolled transfer of RMB to China for non-trade purposes, payments from all Hong Kong banks to banks in "mainland China" still go through the Bank of China (Hong Kong) and should only be made in payment for foreign trade contracts (goods, services). Moreover, the Bank of China (Hong Kong) has a special quota, which is allocated to Authorized financial institutions-participants (Participating Authorized Institutions, or AIs) for the total amount of trade transfers from Hong Kong to mainland China, which in 2010 was $ 8 billion. about $ 1.2 billion) and due to high demand was exhausted in October 2010. As a result, the Hong Kong financial regulator Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which has an agreement with the PBOC on a mutual currency swap, was forced to use this source of yuan to close a position on urgent trade payments to China. For the first quarter of 2011, the Bank of China (Hong Kong) ' s quota for RMB transfers to China under trade contracts was set at 4 billion yuan. RMB (about $600 million).

Thus, as the analysts of HSBC bank summed up, since June 2010, the following rules for RMB have come into effect in Hong Kong::

- all restrictions on the transfer of funds in RMB between different RMB accounts, both within and between different financial institutions, have been lifted;

-conversion limits for private and so-called authorized business clients of up to 20 thousand yuan per day for deposit accounts in yuan for private clients have not changed; up to

20 thousand yuan per transaction per person in banknotes for private clients and for conversion of yuan to other currencies for authorized business clients;

- investment products denominated in RMB, with the exception of loans in RMB to private clients and authorized business clients, can now be offered by all financial institutions;

- all restrictions on opening corporate accounts in RMB by non-bank financial institutions have been lifted;

- key constraint: The ability of authorized institutions to meet demand is limited by the fact that the regulator has the opportunity to close a position on the Hong Kong RMB interbank market.

The Bank of China (Hong Kong) retains key control over the volume of yuan flowing into the Hong Kong interbank market. A small amount of RMB revenue can also be provided by RMB revenue from trade transactions and conversion operations of private clients and authorized business clients within the established limits 17.

Thus, after the adoption of new rules for the circulation of RMB in Hong Kong in 2010 and the creation, as mentioned above, of the CNH offshore RMB market (Chinese RMB with delivery in Hong Kong), transactions in various financial instruments began in this market, including spot* transactions with delivery of CNH (at a discount in US dollars against the US dollar). for spot transactions with CNY delivery, i.e. transactions in the domestic Chinese market), as well as transactions on CNH delivery and non-delivery forwards**.

Spot-settlement conditions under which payment for a transaction is made immediately, usually within two days (approx. ed.).

** Non-deliverable forward - a transaction similar to a currency forward transaction, in accordance with which, however, the corresponding nominal amounts are not exchanged in the agreed currencies. Instead, the difference between the nominal liability calculated at the fixed exchange rate agreed by the parties on the transaction date and the nominal liability calculated at the reference exchange rate on the fixing date is paid (editor's note).

page 6

The CNH interest rate swap market did not develop, because it was based on the rates of the "mainland" China market - SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, Shanghai Interbank offer rate), and this did not interest anyone.

As for CNH deposits, since CNH deposit rates are based only on quotations from the Bank of China (Hong Kong), and these deposits have a limited scope of use, the rates on them are significantly lower than the deposit rates for CNY in mainland China.

The Bank of China (Hong Kong) publishes interest rates (interest) on the cost of funding in RMB CNY HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) on its website. It is interesting to see how these rates changed from March 2011 to the beginning of July 2012 (see Table 2).

In addition to the Bank of China (Hong Kong), other Participating Authorized Institutio-ns banks also publish their RMB funding interest rates on a daily basis. For example, Standard Chartered Bank's CNH HIBOR rates can be viewed on Reuters (Code: "SCBHK04"), and HSBC's rates on slots, forwards and swaps can be viewed on Reuters (Code: "HSBCRMB").

According to the decision of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) as the clearing bank for RMB transactions in Hong Kong, from April 8, 2011 authorized financial institutions participating in RMB settlements (referred to in the Bank of China press release as "participating banks") can open RMB accounts managed by proxy with the Bank of China (Hong Kong). After that, they will be able to transfer funds in RMB through the Bank of China (Hong Kong) to a Joint Account that the Bank of China (Hong Kong) opens with the People's Bank of China on behalf of the participating banks. Since the funds in this Combined Account are not included in the balance sheet of the Bank of China (Hong Kong), this reduces the risks that participating banks were forced to place on the Bank of China (Hong Kong) due to the huge and ever-increasing amounts of deposits in yuan.

Due to limited opportunities for placing funds in offshore yuan, the cost of these funds is still lower than the cost of financing in "mainland" China, although, as can be seen from the table above, this cost is growing. Analysts at HSBC, Standard Chartered and J. P. Morgan agree on this. And this situation will continue long enough until the circulation of yuan between the offshore and domestic Chinese markets becomes free. The sharp increase in CNH funding rates at the end of 2010 was temporary and was related, as mentioned above, to the exhaustion of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) quota.


The next step in the "internationalization" of the yuan was the opening in Hong Kong of a market for bonds issued outside of "mainland" China (offshore) and denominated in yuan, the so-called dim sum bonds market. Most of these bonds are denominated in CNH, but some of them are "pegged" to CNY (but paid in US dollars). At the end of 2010, the total amount of yuan-denominated bonds issued outside of China reached $ 59 billion. RMB, which is only 0.3% of the total volume of issued RMB bonds, meaning that the offshore RMB bond market has huge growth prospects. According to J. P. Morgan, of the total volume of bonds held in CNH, 29% were held by banks, 25% by government agencies (Eximbank of the People's Republic of China) and 24% by government bonds 18. So far, only VTB Capital has placed Eurobonds among Russian companies in December 2010

VTB Bank in the amount of 1 billion offshore yuan (coupon rate was 2.95%, maturity-3 years).

According to Bloomberg, in 2011, the total amount of issued dim sum bonds was already 146 billion rubles. yuan ($22.9 billion)*19.


In August 2010, the next step was taken to facilitate the circulation of the yuan between the offshore and domestic markets. The PBOC has opened up access to its domestic interbank bond market to foreign central banks and all foreign banks participating in the RMB trading settlement scheme.

Hong Kong and Macau clearing banks that conduct transactions in RMB, foreign central banks that have signed mutual currency swap agreements with the NBK, and foreign banks that are authorized participants in the RMB international settlement system were allowed to invest RMB received abroad as a result of trading operations or under central bank swap agreements in the interbank market. the bond market in "mainland China".

At first glance, like the previous step, the new measures did not change anything in the existing capital account regime. In fact, they were a crucial step towards further internationalization of the renminbi, opening up access to China's huge domestic interbank bond market.,

* The Chinese interbank bond market is the largest market for yuan-denominated bonds. Of the total amount of 20 trillion yuan (about $3 trillion) of yuan-denominated bonds issued in circulation, about 92% is traded on the interbank market. Exchanges and the over-the-counter bond market accounted for only 2% of the total amount of bonds issued in mid-2010. The interbank market accounts for 99% of the total amount of bond transactions (33 trillion yuan, or about $5 trillion).

page 7

although under the control of the NBK, to which foreign banks must apply for investment quotas. Already in September 2010, such large banks as HSBC Holdings Plc, Standard Chartered Plc, and Bank of East Asia applied to the NBK for appropriate quotas. By December 2010, 5 foreign banks ($29.2 billion) had received the right to enter the Chinese interbank bond market and the corresponding NBK quotas. In January 2011, 7 more foreign banks were added, and in March 2011 - 8 more foreign banks (20 in total). Analysts of J. P. Morgan bank, considering the issues of internationalization of the yuan, note that this process should go through 5 stages in its development:

1. the yuan is moving out of "mainland China";

2. the yuan circulates outside of "mainland China" {offshore).

3. the yuan is returning to "mainland China";

4. increasing the reach and depth of the offshore RMB market;

5. conversion of capital accounts is allowed.

As we can see, the first three stages had the task of organizing the circulation of the yuan between the internal {onshore) and external {offshore) markets. These stages were implemented in Hong Kong on an experimental market that is available to various participants with certain quotas.

The final two steps to allow conversion of capital accounts and convert the renminbi into an international currency are much more complex, and China has only just begun to implement them.

(The ending follows)

1 Prime-TASS. 23.03.2009 - -876909&ct=news


3 Vedomosti, 18.11.2010.


5 РБК, 18.03.2012 - 41604.shtml

6 China Daily, 11.04.2012.


8 Data for 2010 / / National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2011 - 02 - 28.

9 Vedomosti, 14.03.2011.

10 РБК, 17.01.2012 - 63358l.shtml

11 Quote from the official portal of the Government of the People's Republic of China - - 01/10/content_2041041.htm

12 China Daily, 15.03.2012.

13 People's Daily online, 19.01.2012 -

14 People's Daily -

15 China Daily, 05.03.2012.

16 China Daily, 11.01.2012.

17 HSBC Report: The rise of a Redback. November 2010.

Morgan J.P. 18 Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd.: "The CNH market". January 26, 2011.



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