Libmonster ID: UZ-1528
Author(s) of the publication: I. D. Kovalchenko

Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy of Sciences I. D. Kovalchenko

The main task of Soviet historical science at the present stage is to increase the relevance, quality and effectiveness of research, to create fundamental works, the results of which will have practical, applied, theoretical and methodological significance. One of the important conditions for the successful solution of this problem is the improvement of research methods, including the use of quantitative methods.

The first experiments with the use of computers and mathematical and statistical methods in concrete historical research in our country were related to the processing of local statistical data on the socio-economic, primarily agricultural, history of Russia The distinctive features of the current stage of development of research using quantitative methods are not just the growth of their number, the expansion of the scope of application, the variety and improvement of methodological techniques and tools, but above all the formulation of research problems that are difficult to solve using traditional methods. 2
Soviet historians still focus on the study of socio-economic history. The leading place here is occupied by research on the agricultural history of Russia. Their main goal is a holistic disclosure of the inner essence and mechanism of the phenomena under study. Thus, as a result of the study of the internal structure of the peasant and landowner economy based on the processing of statistical data sets (materials from scribal books, zemstvo-statistical surveys, agricultural and land censuses, etc.), it was possible to significantly deepen our understanding of the mechanism of functioning of the feudal-serf system of economy, the level of development of capitalism in the peasant and landowner economy at the end of the XIX - at the beginning of the XX century. and to solve a number of other issues that caused controversy among historians.

Significant results were obtained when quantitative methods were used to study the process of forming unified national markets.-

1 See, for example: Kakhk Yu. Y., Ligi Kh. M. On the question of the economic situation and feudal duties of peasants in the Estland province in the XVIII century. In: Yearbook on the Agrarian History of Eastern Europe. 1962. Minsk. 1964; Kovalchenko I. D., Ustinov V. A. On the use of computers for processing historical and statistical materials. - Voprosy istorii, 1964, No. 1; and others.

2 Articles published in the collections Mathematical Methods in Historical Research (Moscow, 1972), Mathematical Methods in Research on Socio-economic History (Moscow, 1975), Mathematical Methods in Historical - Economic and Historical-Cultural Research (Moscow, 1977), Mathematical Methods in Socio-Economic and Archaeological Research (Moscow, Russia) give an idea of the use of quantitative methods by Soviet historians. Moscow, 1981. In addition, in the articles of Soviet scientists published in the collection "Quantitative methods in Soviet and American historiography. Materials of the Soviet-American symposia in Baltimore, 1979 and Tallinn, 1981" (Moscow, 1983), some results of the use of quantitative methods in the study of various aspects of Russian history are summed up.

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the European market of the late 19th and early 20th centuries 3 . These methods are also increasingly used in the development of the history of industry and agriculture, the working class, the peasantry ,and the intelligentsia at all stages of the development of Soviet society. 4 Quantitative methods are also used in the study of socio-economic history in the Middle Ages .5
The search for new methods is also typical for researchers of socio-political history. These are attempts to apply quantitative methods to the analysis of such complex phenomena as class and political struggle, agrarian politics, etc . 6 .These methods are also increasingly used in archaeological and ethnosociological researchs7. The traditional direction of applying quantitative methods is historical and demographic research. Estonian historians do this most successfully .8 These methods are also used in other areas of historical research.

Quantitative methods are used not only for processing and analyzing sources containing quantitative data, but also for working with narrative and descriptive sources .9 The use of these methods has increased the requirements for the reliability and representativeness of specific historical data. This led to the use of mathematical methods in source studies. At the same time, they are used in the source analysis of both mass quantitative data and narrative sources .10
Computers also play an important role in historical research. They are not only a powerful tool for counting, but also allow you to solve independent tasks. One of them is the creation of machine tools

3 Kovalchenko I. D., Milov L. V. All-Russian agrarian market. XVIII-early XX centuries. Experience in quantitative analysis. M. 1974; Malov V. N. To the question of folding a single grain market in France in the XVIII-XIX centuries. In the collection: French Yearbook. 1979. M. 1981; izmestiev T. F. Analysis of the external market (by sources of the late XIX - early XX century). In the collection: Quantitative methods in the Humanities. M. 1981.

4 Drobizhev V. Z., Pivovar E. I. Mass sources on the history of the Soviet working class and intelligentsia and quantitative methods of their analysis. In: Quantitative methods in Soviet and American historiography; Bokarev Yu. P. Quantitative methods in research on the history of the Soviet pre-kolkhoz peasantry. In the same place.

5 Khvostova K. V. Quantitative approach to medieval socio-economic history, Moscow, 1980; Bessmertny Yu.L. Matematicheskie metody i ikh primenenie pri issledovanii problemov srednevekovya [Mathematical methods and their application in the study of medieval problems]. In: The Middle Ages. Issue 34, Moscow, 1971.

6 See, for example: Kakhk Yu. Y., Ligi Kh. M. On the connection between anti-feudal Actions of peasants and their situation. Istoriya SSSR, 1976, No. 2; Deopik D. V. Opyt kachestvennogo analiza drevnostochnoi letopisi "Chunqiu"[Experience of quantitative analysis of the Ancient Eastern Chronicle "Chunqiu"]. In: Matematicheskie metody v istoriko - ekonomicheskikh i istoriko-kul'turnykh issledovaniyakh [Mathematical methods in historical-economic and historical-cultural studies]. - Ibid.; and others.

7 Kvirkvelia O. R. Brief review of Soviet literature on the application of statistical and mathematical research methods in archeology. In: Matematicheskie metody v sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh i arkheologicheskikh issledovaniyakh [Mathematical methods in socio-economic and archaeological research]. In: Quantitative Methods in Soviet and American Historiography.

8 Palli X. Natural movement of the rural population of Estonia (1650-1799). Vol. 1-3. Tallinn. 1980.

9 Borodkin L. I., Milov L. V. Some aspects of the application of quantitative methods and computers in the study of narrative sources. In: Quantitative methods in Soviet and American Historiography; Lukov V. B., Sergeev V. M. Experience in modeling the thinking of historical figures: Otto von Bismarck, 1866-1876. In: Voprosy kibernetiki [Questions of Cybernetics]. Logic of reasoning and its modeling, Moscow, 1983.

10 Mass sources on the socio-economic history of Russia in the era of capitalism, Moscow, 1979; Mass sources on the socio-economic history of the Soviet period, Moscow, 1979; Mass sources on the history of the Soviet working class of the period of developed socialism, Moscow, 1981.

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banks of historical information for repeated use. Computers also make it possible to solve many information retrieval and combinatorial problems that are difficult to perform in the usual way.

These are the main directions of applying quantitative methods in the research of Soviet historians. This work is also carried out in foreign historiography along the same lines .11 The total amount of work performed on the basis of quantitative methods, the number of specialists and funds involved in them, and the volume of banks of machine-generated historical information in the USSR are less than what is in the assets of, for example, American historians. However, with the slower development of quantitative methods in Soviet historiography, it has a more organic character and is associated with the development of basic scientific problems and does not entail such significant costs and negative phenomena as occur in bourgeois historiography. The reason for this lies in the fundamentally different theoretical and methodological approach of Soviet historians to the study of the past in general and to the use of quantitative methods in particular.

* * *

The appeal of historians to quantitative methods and computers inevitably gave rise to disputes about whether these methods are necessary for historical science and what their application can bring. In bourgeois historiography, there are two opposing approaches to this question.

The essence of one of them is that quantitative methods not only do not advance historical science, but can even harm it. The evidence for this is seen in the fact that, firstly, so many details will have to be thrown out that it is not known whether "the child will be thrown out of the bath with the water", and, secondly, in the fact that many areas of historical research do not have the quantitative or theoretical characteristics that would allow them to be exposed mathematical analysis. This attitude to quantitative methods is primarily defended by representatives of the subjectivist methodology of historical cognition. They proceed from the fact that social life is supposedly a set of individual and unique phenomena that do not have objective internal laws of development, and therefore they can only be described and evaluated from the standpoint of certain subjective ideals and principles. The opposite point of view is defended by those supporters of quantitative methods who idealize and absolutize these methods, believing that their application will not only advance historical science, but also generally lead to the creation of a mathematical history that differs from the traditional one. These are representatives of the positivist-structuralist methodology of historical cognition. However, even during the period of the most acute discussion among bourgeois historians, the line that proceeds from the desire for a more objective assessment of the role and place of quantitative methods in historical research, alien to both nihilistic attitude towards them and their absolutization, has made itself felt. Thus, the difference in attitude to quantitative methods in bourgeois historiography is primarily due to differences in the theoretical and methodological positions of its individual representatives.

Soviet historians at all stages of applying quantitative methods emphasized that the latter in no way: they are not

11 See articles by American historians in the collection "Quantitative Methods in Soviet and American Historiography".

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absolute methods do not replace other methods, and the quantitative characteristics of phenomena and processes obtained on their basis can deepen our knowledge of the past only if an organic combination of formal-quantitative and essential-meaningful, qualitative analysis of them is achieved 12 . Of course, even among Soviet historians, there are differences in the attitude to quantitative methods. However, these differences are not based on methodological differences.

As a result of the experience accumulated over the past two decades, it has now become obvious that the main thing is not whether quantitative methods are necessary for historical science, or even where they can be applied (experience has shown that they can be used in the study of any phenomena and processes of the past), but how to use them. it should be used to really deepen the knowledge of history. This experience also makes it possible to identify the main points that need to be taken into account and which are not always taken into account in specific studies.

First of all, the question of the relationship between quantitative and qualitative analysis should be clarified. The prevailing view here is that these are two separate and opposing types of analysis. This leads to the fact that some, seeing qualitative, meaningful analysis as the main means of historical research, underestimate quantitative methods, considering them formal and unsuitable for revealing the essence of phenomena. Others identify qualitative analysis with descriptive methods and, pointing out their imperfections, tend to exaggerate the importance of quantitative methods. In reality, these antitheses are incorrect.

It is quite obvious that qualitative, i.e. meaningful, analysis, which aims to reveal the main features and essence of the phenomena and processes under study, is leading in any, including historical research and in the application of any methods. But a qualitative, meaningful analysis based on a certain theory and methodology of historical knowledge can be carried out only if there is some information, specific information about the phenomena and processes under study. This information can be expressed and processed by the researcher in two forms - descriptive and quantitative 13 . Therefore, any historical analysis can be either descriptive in content, quantitative in content, or both. Therefore, it is inappropriate to contrast qualitative and quantitative analysis, as is usually done. You can compare descriptive and quantitative methods of expressing and processing data. Each of them has its own strengths, weaknesses and effective scope. Depending on the research task and the nature of specific historical data, one or the other of them may be leading, and most often a combination of both is necessary.

The advantage of descriptive methods is their versatility and simplicity, the possibility of detailed and imaginative reflection of phenomena. Together

12 Kakhk Yu. Y. Do I need a new historical science? Voprosy istorii, 1969, N 3; Kakhk Yu. Y., Kovalchenko I. D. Metodologicheskie problemy primeneniya kachestvennykh metodov v istoricheskikh issledovaniyakh [Methodological problems of applying quantitative methods in historical research]. - History of the USSR, 1974, N 5; Khvostova K. V. Methodological problems of applying mathematical methods in historical research. - Voprosy istorii, 1975, No. 11. The role of quantitative methods in historical cognition. - Voprosy istorii, 1983, N 4; Kovalchenko I. D. O modelirovanii istoricheskikh yavleniy i protsessov [On modeling historical phenomena and processes]. 1978, No. 8; Kovalchenko I. D., Tishkov V. A. Results and prospects of applying quantitative methods in Soviet and American historiography. In: Quantitative Methods in Soviet and American Historiography.

13 Data from material and visual (natural-visual, artistic - visual) sources for their historical analysis should be translated into descriptive or quantitative form.

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However, when working with mass data, these methods can lead to illustrativeness or, conversely, to factography. These methods, while revealing certain signs and properties of phenomena and their interrelations, do not show the measure of these properties and the strength of interrelations. In this respect, quantitative analysis is more in-depth and precise than descriptive analysis. Its advantages are that it allows you to identify a quantitative measure of the studied features and properties, and therefore, a measure of the quality that is inherent in the corresponding phenomenon or process. That is why Karl Marx believed that "science reaches perfection only when it manages to use mathematics" 14 .

The effectiveness of applying any specific methods, including quantitative ones, depends primarily on the nature of the general theory and methodology on which historical knowledge is based. The greatest results can be obtained when theory and methodology allow and require: a broad approach to the object of historical knowledge, its versatile consideration; the use of various methods for identifying, collecting, processing and analyzing specific historical data; comprehensive interpretation and generalization of the results of specific historical analysis. This approach to the study of the past is fully supported only by historical materialism and the dialectical method of cognition. This explains the much more effective use of quantitative methods by Soviet historians compared to non-Marxist historians.

The nature of the general theory and methodology of historical knowledge underlying the use of quantitative methods in research is a determining, but not the only factor in the successful application of these methods. There is a whole set of other factors that affect this success. The main ones are: the correct formulation of the research problem; the selection of qualitatively and quantitatively representative concrete historical data; the adequacy of mathematical methods to reflect the internal logic of the phenomena under study and the correct application of these methods; the comprehensiveness and depth of meaningful interpretation of the results of mathematical data processing.

The correct formulation of a research problem with any methods of solving it, including quantitative ones, first of all requires a comprehensive, holistic (systematic) approach to the objects, phenomena and processes of the past under study, considering them in all their diversity, internal complexity and inconsistency, interrelation and conditionality in development. Naturally, the research problem should be relevant, i.e. its solution should have scientific and practical significance. When setting a research task, it is very important to take into account objectively what was achieved as a result of the previous study of the analyzed phenomena and processes. At the same time, neither nihilism nor conservatism should be shown in relation to the results achieved by the predecessors. We have to talk about this because sometimes there is an underestimation of the results obtained by traditional methods, forgetting that only on the basis of these results can we move on and move on to a quantitative analysis of the phenomena under consideration.

The qualitative and meaningful representativeness of quantitative data is determined by the extent to which the indicators used to study the relevant historical phenomena and processes reflect exactly those features and properties that characterize the inner essence of these phenomena and processes. Therefore, the selection of these indicators by the researcher is of fundamental importance. This selection must proceed from

14 Memoirs of Karl Marx and Fr. Engels, Moscow, 1956, p. 66.

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It should be based on a qualitative, theoretical-methodological and concrete - historical disclosure of its essence. This will determine the system of features, accounting and measurement of which will representatively characterize the studied phenomena and processes. It is clear that the practical possibility of obtaining a representative system of indicators also depends on the state of the research source base.

Selecting indicators is most difficult when the sources contain a large number of them. Here we should assume that the number of indicators used does not in itself determine the success of the study, as is sometimes mistakenly believed. Moreover, a mechanical increase in the number of indicators can complicate the solution of the problem and even lead away from the main thing in it. Therefore, in studies based on sources containing a large number of indicators, it is very useful to identify the most important ones in advance by experimentally processing data on a small sample of objects. Mathematical methods can also be effectively applied to identify the main indicators. In cases where there are few indicators and they are not representative for solving the task, you should make adjustments to the problem statement or refrain from trying to solve it until such representativeness is achieved. Thus, the selection of quantitative indicators for analysis is a very important point. It requires a high level of professional training, and not just mastering certain quantitative methods, as is sometimes believed.

The problem of quantitative representativeness of data arises when a historian studies certain phenomena based on sample data. If you have information about the entire population, you can create a representative sample based on the rules and requirements developed in the sample method. The situation is much more complicated when you have to work with so-called natural samples of quantitative data, i.e. use such a set of partially preserved, incomplete or fragmentary information, the volume of which cannot be changed. "Natural samples" may or may not be representative. Therefore, a special check of their representativeness is always necessary. Very often, it is not carried out, which casts doubt on the legitimacy of extending the results obtained to the entire general population. However, methods for rigorous mathematical verification of the representativeness of such samples have not yet been developed. This problem needs to be solved by both historians and mathematicians.

Of particular importance is the use by historians of various methods to fill in gaps in quantitative data and calculations of missing indicators. By themselves, these methods are diverse and widely used in research. The use of various mathematical methods also largely contributes to the solution of problems that arise here. However, filling in and calculating missing data is reasonable and correct only if there are reliable initial indicators for this purpose. Unfortunately, this indispensable condition is not always observed by historians. There are cases of unjustified extrapolation of data from one epoch to another, up to the use of modern information to calculate indicators for the ancient era.

A crucial stage in the application of quantitative methods in historical research is mathematical and statistical processing of quantitative data. The main purpose of applying the mathematical approach is to:

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The goal of any research, including historical research, is to obtain new information that is not directly expressed in the source data as a result of mathematical processing of the initial quantitative indicators. Then, a historical and meaningful analysis of this information can provide new knowledge about the phenomena and processes under study. In principle, the same problem is solved using traditional methods. But the use of mathematical methods allows you to get much more new information, and it is more objective and accurate.

It is clear that the new information obtained by the mathematical method must correctly characterize the essential features and properties of the phenomena and processes under study. This can be achieved if the applied mathematical apparatus adequately reflects the essence of these phenomena and processes. Therefore, finding out to what extent the specified apparatus adequately reproduces this essence in accordance with the set research task is the most important and indispensable condition for applying mathematical methods.

To judge which of the possible mathematical methods are most appropriate for solving a given problem, the historian must clearly understand the logical essence of these methods. Correlating it with the logic of the phenomenon itself is the main way to solve the question of the adequacy, and therefore the effectiveness of the use of mathematical tools. Understanding the logical essence of mathematical methods is also necessary for correct substantive interpretation of the results of mathematical analysis.

To understand the logical essence of certain mathematical techniques for processing and analyzing quantitative data and their correspondence to the problem being solved, you do not need the ability to deduce and prove or even practically apply the corresponding formulas. To do this, first of all, it is necessary to master the principles and skills of an abstract-logical approach to the content essence of the studied phenomena and processes of historical development and correlate them with the logic of mathematical methods, which requires an elementary mathematical training to understand. The practical implementation of this procedure begins with a theoretical and abstract definition of the content essence and ways to solve the research problem. It consists in putting forward an idea or set of ideas that explain the essence of the phenomena under study. This explanation is hypothetical, i.e. abstract-theoretical, in nature. Further, based on this, the mathematical methods that should be used for processing and analyzing quantitative data and that will adequately reflect the essence of the phenomena under study are identified.

Let us assume that a historian is investigating rent relations among the peasantry in a particular region of Russia during the capitalist era. Based on the fact that the nature of the lease could be either entrepreneurial, i.e. aimed at the production of surplus products for sale, or out of need, when land was hired to produce the missing product, he can put forward a hypothesis about the predominance of leases out of need. To verify the correctness of this hypothesis, it is possible to identify the ratio of farmers ' security with their own and rented land. Meaningfully and logically, if leases from necessity prevail, there should be an inverse relationship between the security of their own and leased land, i.e., the less land the peasants had of their own, the more land they should have rented. To solve this problem, you can use a mathematical method for identifying relationships, such as correlation analysis. It will quite adequately reflect the essence of the phenomenon. If the correlation coefficient indicates the presence of an inverse relationship-

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If there are no links between the attributes, then the hypothesis is confirmed. If the relationship is direct, then it should be rejected and the opposite hypothesis, i.e. the predominance of business leases, should be recognized as true. This is the simplest example, but it clearly shows the stages of setting and formalizing the problem and choosing an adequate method for its mathematical solution.

These are the general principles and ways of checking the adequacy of mathematical methods to reflect the essence of phenomena. But there are also some specific ways to do this. One of them may be the use of different mathematical methods for processing and analyzing the same specific historical data. If the results are consistent, this will indicate that these methods adequately reflect the corresponding properties of the phenomena under study. Another way may consist in forming two such samples from the data set, which characterize objects or phenomena with obviously significantly different properties. Processing these samples using the same mathematical method will allow us to determine how sensitively it captures these differences, and therefore, adequately reflects the essence of the phenomena. These" tests " of mathematical methods for the adequacy of reproducing the phenomena and processes under study are very useful in cases where the comparison of the logic of phenomena and the logic of the method is difficult or does not give a clear result.

Adequate reflection of the essence of phenomena by the mathematical apparatus is the most important, but not the only condition for successful mathematical processing and analysis of quantitative data. This success is also determined by the correct application of mathematical methods. In the strict sense, it is an integral component of adequacy. Mathematical methods, like any other, have their own range of applications, in which they give the most reliable and accurate result. This range is determined by the application conditions of the corresponding method. Compliance with these conditions is the correct application of the method. For example, many methods of mathematical statistics require that the values of a quantitative trait have a so-called normal distribution, which is inherent in random mass phenomena. But not all even mass phenomena of social life are subject to a normal distribution. Numerical values of the features that characterize such phenomena may also have other forms of distribution. In all cases when a particular mathematical and statistical method is designed for a certain distribution, and the study is conducted on the basis of sample data, it is absolutely necessary to check the nature of the distribution of these data. Without this, it is impossible to judge the values of the trait in the general population based on the sample data.

Many mathematical and statistical methods are based on one or another type of functional dependence. Therefore, it is very important to find out which of its types best describes the dependence that actually occurred. It should be borne in mind that if the nature of the distribution is taken into account when analyzing only sample data, then checking the nature of the dependence is always necessary. An important condition for applying a number of mathematical and statistical methods is the independence of the numerical values of the feature that form the corresponding statistical series. Therefore, it is necessary to check the existence of such a dependency and take it into account when applying appropriate mathematical methods of data processing. There are other conditions that must be met for the correct application of mathematical methods.

So much detail about the adequacy and correctness of the application of mathematical methods is discussed here because for historians, taking them into account is necessary.

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it has not yet become a rule when applying mathematical methods. And this can lead to dubious and even erroneous conclusions when interpreting the results of mathematical processing of specific data. Any methods of historical research should be applied correctly. This is all the more important when it comes to quantitative methods, since they are inherently more rigorous and precise. When using mathematical methods, it is natural to focus on those of them that allow you to study the phenomena of the past most deeply and accurately. If the possibilities of different methods are approximately equal, you should refer to the simpler ones. This makes it easier to decide on their adequacy and reduces the volume of counting operations, which is important when processing large amounts of data.

The final stage in the application of quantitative methods in historical research is the interpretation of the results of mathematical processing and analysis of quantitative data and generalization of the results obtained. Success here is determined by the level of qualitative, substantive and meaningful analysis, as well as the depth of translation of mathematical indicators to a meaningful historical level. This is the most important and complex stage of research based on the use of quantitative methods. Unfortunately, it is not always held at the proper level. Often, historians limit themselves to simply stating certain quantitative characteristics without revealing their content and historical essence. This causes reasonable dissatisfaction among those who study these phenomena using conventional methods.

When applying quantitative methods, one cannot succumb to the illusion that the rigor of mathematical analysis itself gives it a comprehensive character and absolute evidentiary value. Mathematical analysis, as well as other methods, may not explain the whole essence of the phenomena and processes under study. They will either confirm the essential and meaningful hypothesis put forward when referring to them, or they will refute it. The result of the analysis in such a case will only indicate that it should be started again and with a different approach to the problem. Thus, determining what we have learned and what remains unknown is a prerequisite for the final phase of quantitative analysis.

These are the general theoretical and methodological and concrete methodological conditions for the successful application of quantitative methods in historical research. They require historians who apply these methods to use an organic and skilful combination of theoretical and methodological, professional-historical, and mathematical - methodological approaches. Therefore, we cannot agree that for the successful application of these methods, the main task is supposedly mathematical training. It is certainly necessary for historians at the level of logical understanding of the essence of these methods and the conditions for their application (because the mathematical and technical side of the matter can be solved by mathematicians working together with historians), but this training in itself does not determine either the correctness or effectiveness of using these methods. A crucial role at all stages of applying quantitative methods is played by a qualitative, essential-content, theoretical-methodological and concrete-historical approach. At the same time, the higher the level of application of quantitative methods, the greater the role of qualitative analysis. This is evidenced by the experience of modeling historical phenomena and processes 15 .

15 For more information, see: Kovalchenko I. D. On modeling historical phenomena and processes. Voprosy istorii, 1978, No. 8.

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The application of mathematical methods for processing and analyzing quantitative data that characterize historical phenomena and processes is ultimately the construction of their formal-quantitative, mathematical models. Any scientific model is an abstracted expression of the basic essence of the phenomena and processes of the objective world under study. Modeling is based on the similarity theory, and the model acts as an approximate analogue of these phenomena and processes. Obviously, no quantitative model can be constructed without a qualitative model. Therefore, any scientific modeling consists of two stages - substantive and substantive and formal - quantitative. From this point of view, we can say that modeling involves building a qualitative model and a quantitative model.

The essence-content model is the result of a theoretical analysis of specific scientific ideas about the object of modeling and in a generalized form expresses the main features, regularities and features of the functioning of the studied phenomena and processes, as well as their theoretically permissible states. They serve as the basis for constructing a model for formal-quantitative and meaningful interpretation of mathematical modeling results. This explains the determining role of the qualitative, essential-content side in the modeling process.

The scientific objectivity and effectiveness of a qualitative model depend entirely on the nature of the theory and methodology of scientific knowledge on which it is based. It is the Marxist theory and methodology of social cognition that makes it possible to objectively, comprehensively and deeply reveal the essence of social processes and phenomena and formulate their meaningful models. It is well known that it is precisely the Marxist analysis of historical development that has reached the depth that has allowed us to determine the essential and meaningful models of many important manifestations of this development. Such models include, for example, definitions of the main features and features of socio-economic formations, methods of social production, classes, revolutionary situations, and many others. Such essential-content models have the status of scientific theories confirmed by the course of historical development, and serve as a basis for Soviet scientists to build formal and quantitative models of social phenomena and processes at both the macro and micro levels.

Formal-quantitative modeling consists in the formalized expression of an essential-content model by means of mathematical means. Filling this model with specific data and their mathematical processing and analysis provides new information about the phenomena and processes under study. A meaningful interpretation of this information leads to new knowledge.

Thus, without a qualitative analysis that expresses at the theoretical level the essential and meaningful ideas about the object of modeling, a formal quantitative model cannot be constructed, and more broadly, quantitative methods for processing and analyzing specific historical data can be used. In this connection, the groundlessness of the occasional independent incursions of mathematicians into the field of history is particularly clear. The failure of these intrusions, due to their unprofessional nature, is quite obvious to historians and, moreover, directly proportional to their sensationalism. One of these "sensations" is the attempt of mathematicians, based on the methods they have developed, to question the reliability of information from ancient sources and their very authenticity, and thereby either completely overthrow the ideas about antiquity that have been formed over centuries of research efforts, or to shift the idea of antiquity.-

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to move ancient history forward a thousand years. The failure of such attempts has been repeatedly pointed out in the scientific press16 .

The main harm of attempts to use quantitative methods in historical research, undertaken by mathematicians who do not have historical training and work without contact with historians, is that they discredit these methods, undermining the credibility of historians who are unfamiliar with these methods. The inconsistency of the "results" obtained in this way is attributed to mathematical methods as such, and not to the lack of historical training among the mathematicians who use them, which explains their unskilled treatment of sources and facts, reaching direct distortions, and lack of understanding of the very essence of historical development, the principles and methods of its cognition. Meanwhile, the mathematical apparatus that mathematicians mistakenly use when trying to solve problems of historical science can in many cases be used in historical research. But to do this, mathematicians must work together with historians and learn to understand the historical essence of the problems they solve and be able to relate mathematical methods to it. This is also necessary, as well as historians ' understanding of the logical essence of the mathematical methods used in historical research. Experience shows that the greatest success in applying mathematical methods in historical research is achieved when historians and mathematicians work together.

* * *

Effective use of quantitative methods and computers in historical research, along with increasing their theoretical and methodological, general historical and methodological level, also requires improving their scientific, organizational and material-technical base. There are a number of issues to be resolved here.

First of all, work in this direction should be carried out systematically, covering all the main aspects of historical research, and it should be led by appropriate historical departments, which include mathematicians along with historians or work in conjunction with mathematicians. Currently, the country has a number of laboratories and research groups that develop methods of historical research, including the use of quantitative methods, or conduct specific historical research based on the use of these methods. These are laboratories and groups of institutes of the History of the USSR, Archeology, International labor movement, Ethnography of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, the Faculty of History of Moscow University, the Institute of History of the Academy of Sciences of the Estonian SSR, and some others. This list shows, firstly, a clear lag in the use of quantitative methods in studying the history of European and American countries, and, secondly, the weak involvement of historians from peripheral research centers in this work. This situation is primarily due to the lack of appropriate personnel. Therefore, the most important task is to prepare them. In this area, work should be carried out in a number of areas.

The primary task is to familiarize a wide range of historians with the basic principles and methods of quantitative analysis.-

16 For more information, see: Golubtsova E. S., Koshelenko G. A. History of the ancient world and "new methods". Voprosy istorii, 1982, No. 8; Golubtsova E. S., Zavenyagin Yu. A. Once again about "new methods" and chronology of the ancient world. - Voprosy istorii, 1983, N 12.

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Students should participate in historical research so that they can understand the work performed using these methods. It is necessary to start by setting up courses on quantitative methods for students of historical faculties of higher education institutions. Currently, such courses are regularly taught in only a few universities. Historians, teachers and researchers should also receive some training. This can be done through a network of seminars and courses based on those departments that specifically deal with the use of quantitative methods in historical research. This system is effective in a number of foreign countries, including the United States. For university historians, the solution to this problem is now made easier by the introduction of a mandatory course on the use of quantitative methods in historical research at the faculties of advanced training of history teachers. It is necessary to ensure that this course is actually taught in all such faculties. The publication of various manuals can play an important role in familiarizing historians with quantitative methods. It is also very important that historians who use quantitative methods in their works simply and clearly state their mathematical essence. Now this is not always done.

Another challenge is to expand the circle of historians who use quantitative methods in their research. This requires a higher level of training. It can be obtained through consultation and collaboration with mathematicians. Training of historians seeking to master quantitative methods in departments dealing with the application of quantitative methods in historical research can also be a very effective form. It should be developed and encouraged in every possible way.

The success of historical units that use quantitative methods largely depends on their material and technical base. First of all, it is the ability to work on a computer. Now there are a number of difficulties here. Historians are not yet the primary customers for centralized computing centers of the Academy of Sciences and other institutions. Opportunities for their work in these centers should be expanded. There are conditions for this. In addition, there are quite powerful minicomputers that can be installed directly in historical institutions. This will significantly expand the scope of research using quantitative methods and attract more historians to it.

An important issue is the publication of papers on the use of quantitative methods in historical research. Now these works (meaning articles) are published in a variety of publications. The collections published by the Commission on the Use of Quantitative Methods and Computers in Historical Research at the Department of History of the USSR Academy of Sciences cover only a part of these works. The time has come for the regular publication of thematic collections devoted to methodological and methodological aspects of applying quantitative methods in historical research. Such a concentration will make it easier for historians to familiarize themselves with the use of quantitative methods in historical research, attract more attention to them, and promote their use in solving the most pressing problems of historical science.

The work of Soviet historians in the field of applying quantitative methods in historical research has already received wide international recognition. The main evidence for this is the translation abroad (especially in the United States) of a large number of studies by Soviet historians on these subjects and the review of Soviet works. Soviet historians are part of the leadership of the International Commission for the Use of Historical Sciences established under the International Committee of Historical Sciences.

page 72

use quantitative methods in historical research, participate in international conferences and bilateral cooperation on these issues. This cooperation was especially close with US historians. It resulted in the publication of the collection "Quantitative Methods in Soviet and American Historiography", which included reports of Soviet and American historians made at symposia held by them in 1979 in Baltimore and in 1981 in Tallinn. Although Soviet and American scientists study history from fundamentally different theoretical and methodological positions, cooperation in the application of quantitative methods, as in other areas of historical science, is mutually beneficial. Soviet historians have the opportunity, on the one hand, to show the superiority in knowledge of the past that comes from studying it from the standpoint of Marxism-Leninism, and, on the other, to take into account what is useful in the field of methods and techniques of applying quantitative methods and in their organization, which is available in bourgeois historiography. Therefore, the international cooperation of Soviet historians in this field should be expanded.

This is the main range of problems associated with the use of quantitative methods in historical research, the solution of which will increase the effectiveness of research based on these methods.

page 73


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